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the.bricoleur
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #105 on: 2007-05-20 09:07:34 »
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Quote from: Hermit on 2007-05-20 07:12:11   
A really nice popular summary of current comprehension of climate change at New Scientist with links to the sources and a very nice analysis and assessment section.


iolo pretends to have not visited this page before and makes his way to myth 1 ...

Quote from: Hermit on 2007-05-20 07:12:11   
Specific Myths addressed include:
  • Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter


... and is immediately surprised to note how strange the assertion is that atmospheric CO2 concentration is typical of the entire Earth at a site (Mauna Loa) that is:

(a) at 3.4 km altitude,
(b) on the side of a volcano near a CO2-emitting volcanic rift, and
(c) only a few miles from the chaldera of the most active volcano (Kilauea) on Earth.

Unbelievable ... 

I wonder if the remaining 'myths' fair any better ... ?

-iolo.
« Last Edit: 2007-05-20 09:08:39 by Iolo Morganwg » Report to moderator   Logged
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #106 on: 2007-05-21 13:29:16 »
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As far as I am aware, Iowa is a long way from any active volcanoes. And much lower than 3k4m at around 760 ft ASL But the median annual open air CO2 concentrations here center around 375 ppmv, up by 7ppmv in under 10 years and accelerating.

Notice that while Mauna Lua is the longest continuous record, other direct measurement and infered rates have been measured against it, and contra your innuendo, correlate well with its results. Many methodologies have been evaluated, including ice core and botanical studies. One of the widest ranging studies, performed by Harvard, on the other side of the world and hardly likely to be affected by volcanic releases, had this to say:

Historic Period (Present to about 1845). We have extended our present study of the carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric CO2 13C for the historic period back to 1845 BP using samples of maize and Atriplex obtained from herbarium collections. Figure 1a shows a comparison of 13C values inferred from analysis of cellulose nitrate extracted from samples of Zea mays spanning the years 1882 to 1986 with directly measured values taken from the Siple Station ice core and from Mauna Loa. Figure 1b shows 13C values inferred from analysis of cellulose nitrate extracted from samples of Atriplex confertifolia spanning the period 1845 to 1988. The inferred and directly measured values of 13C for the historic period are in general agreement, suggesting that 13a decreased by approximately 1.8 per mil over the past 100 years. The long term trend in 13a may be used to impose constraints on the release of carbon from the biosphere, using model formulations that provide a detailed description of the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle and the transport of carbon within the ocean, as discussed below.

http://nigec.ucdavis.edu/publications/ar/annual94/northeast/project21.html

What impresses me most about the climate change studies is the huge range of confirmatory data being sourced by discipline after discipline. For your conspiracy theory to be seen as meritious, it must be wide ranging indeed. Finally marine biologists specializing in cephalapods and bear behaviouralists can agree on something.

Given you apparent misconception that all CO2 data comes from a single source which you appear to be attemptiong to impeach, consider these, along with that source:

Assertedly the previously longest analysis sequence (prior to 1982): G Stanhill,     Division of Agricultural Meteorology, Agricultural Research Organization, Bet Dagan, Israel, Contribution to Climatic Change from the Agricultural Research Organization, The Volcani Center, Bet Dagan, Israel. No. 254-E, 1981 series.

The longest continuous record of measurements of atmospheric CO[sub]2[/url] concentration available to date, that was made between 1877 and 1910 at the Montsouris Observatory in the outskirts of Paris, is presented and the methods used and the site are described. Annual, seasonal and daily variations in the record were considerable, especially between 1877 and 1880 and possible reasons for this high variability are discussed. Although no direct proof of the reliability of the series is available an attempt has been made to estimate this by comparisons with contemporary series whose precision is better known and also through an analysis of the results from the point of view of the major sources of error. The results suggest a precision of measurement better than 2%; analysis of the daily and the mean seasonal variation shows no evidence of any significant urban contamination of the Montsouris record. Mean decadal values of the Montsouris series show a marked rise in concentration from 283 ppm in the first decade to 313 ppm in the second, with a small and nonsignificant drop to 309 ppm in the third decade of the series. The results of the measurements are thus compatible with the hypothesis that a major and variable non-fossil fuel source of atmospheric CO2 was active during the last quarter of the nineteenth century.


Mauna Loa CO2 observations

NDP-001/R3 (WDC-A)
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations- Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, 1958-1991 (revised 1992)
C. D. Keeling (contributor)

Since 1958, air samples have been continuously collected at Mauna Loa Observatory and analyzed by infrared spectroscopy for CO2 concentrations. Data are averaged to give monthly and annual atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

These data represent the longest continuous record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the world. This precise data record covers a single site (Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii). It is a reliable indicator of the regional trend in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 in the middle layers of the troposphere and is critical to CO2-related research. The data are in one file taking 2.5 kB.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations
NDP-005/R1 (WDC-A )
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations-The NOAA/GMCC Flask Sampling Network (revised 1990)
T. J. Conway, and P. Tans (contributors)

Flask air samples are collected approximately once per week at 29 stations scattered around the globe. The earliest samples were taken in 1968, but the period of record varies from station to station. The samples are analyzed for atmospheric CO2 concentration on a nondispersive infrared gas analyzer apparatus at the NOAA/GMCC laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. The measurements are directly traceable to the World Meteorological Organization primary CO2 standards. Each sample is characterized by station, year, sampling date and time, flask identification number, CO2 concentration, date and time of analysis, and quality indicators. The data are in 30 files [one file that contains data through 1981 (946 kB), and one file for each site with data from 1981 through 1986 (ranging from 3.6 to 55.8 kB)].

CO2 from fossil fuels
NDP-006 (WDC-A)
Production of CO2 from Fossil Fuel Burning by Fuel Type, 1860-1982 (1984)
R. M. Rotty, and G. Marland (contributors)

Global carbon dioxide emissions for 1950 through 1982 were estimated by Marland and Rotty (1984) from fuel production data from the U.N. Energy Statistics Yearbook (1983, 1984). Data before 1950 came from Keeling (1973). Fuel-production data were used in these calculations because they appeared to be more reliable on a global basis than fuel-consumption data.

The data given are the year and annual global CO2 emissions (annual global total; cumulative global total since 1860; and annual global emissions from solid fuels, liquid fuels, natural gas, gas flaring, and cement manufacturing).

These data provide the only pre-1950 estimates of the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere from fossil-fuel burning. The CO2 emission record since 1950 has been updated and revised several times with the most recent estimates being published by Marland et al. (1989). The data are in one file taking 7.5 kB.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CSIRO)
NDP-007 (WDC-A)
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations-The CSIRO (Australia) Monitoring Program from Aircraft for 1972-1981 (1984)
D. J. Beardsmore, and G. I. Pearman (contributors)

From 1972 through 1981, air samples were collected in glass flasks from aircraft at a variety of latitudes and altitudes over Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctica. The samples were analyzed for CO2 concentrations with nondispersive infrared gas analysis. The resulting data contain the sampling dates, type of aircraft, flight number, flask identification number, sampling time, geographic sector, distance in kilometers from the listed distance measuring equipment (DME) station, station number of the radio navigation distance measuring equipment, altitude of the aircraft above mean sea level, sample analysis date, flask pressure, tertiary standards used for the analysis, analyzer used, and CO2 concentration. These data represent the first published record of CO2 concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere expressed in the WMO 1981 CO2 Calibration Scale and provide a precise record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Australia and New Zealand. The data are in one file taking 263 kB.

Finally, here is some solid analysis and thoroughly founded conclusions diametrically opposed to yours from people to whom this already really matters. Of course, it affects most people i the end, as less and less corn is available each year for food and feed as the still reducing crops get turned into ethanol. The only way to support your non-hypothesis might be to ignore the fact that Iowa crops are suffering more and more thermal stress - stress which is completely inexplicable in the absence of climate change models.:
http://www.geology.iastate.edu/gccourse/model/co2/seedsci.html
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #107 on: 2007-05-30 07:47:51 »
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Quote:
hat impresses me most about the climate change studies is the huge range of confirmatory data being sourced by discipline after discipline

But there are no “confirmatory studies”. Indeed, there is so little accurate climate data that the available data can be interpreted to agree with almost any suggestion.  By definition, pseudo-science consists of finding facts that fit a pre-determined opinion and using them to bolster that opinion. 

A hypothesis is supported but not proved by data that does not disagree with it.  But the hypothesis is disproved by a single fact that disagrees with it.  And there are several profound disagreements of climate data with the AGW hypothesis; for example, the AGW hypothesis is denied by the failure of the middle troposphere to warm more than the surface in recent decades.

The only suggestion of a “conspiracy” comes from you. Climate realists (not denialists or other such derogatory label) persistently assert that the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scare is a bandwagon and not a conspiracy.  Nobody needs to conspire to get people to join or stay on the bandwagon when it is going in the direction of its riders' financial and career interests.

The atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased at many places recently, and Iowa is not an exception.  But the rise is small.  For example, you say; “the median annual open air CO2 concentrations here [i.e. in Iowa] center around 375 ppmv, up by 7ppmv in under 10 years and accelerating”.

But so what?  The seasonal variation each year is an order of magnitude greater than the annual rise.  A small variation in the natural sequestration would account for the rise that is the residual of the seasonal change each year.




Rise and fall of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere at four sites, Mauna Loa Hawaii, Estevan Canada, Alert Canada, Shetland Islands. Here three years are selected from the long term graph 1991- 2000, C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf. “On line trends”, cdiac.ornl.

The ice core data have too many faults for them to be listed here, but they have been adjusted by an arbitrary shift equivalent to 83 years to make them fit the Mauna Loa data. 

I assume your mention of “botanical studies” refers to stomata data, but these data indicate that similar fluctuations to the present rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration have occurred in the past.

I do not know the major cause of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration:  nobody knows (despite what some of them may say or think) because the available data are not capable of proving a cause.

Also, the isotope data do not support a contention that the present rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is mostly a result of the anthropogenic emissions. I note that you state:


Quote:
The inferred and directly measured values of 13C for the historic period are in general agreement, suggesting that 13a decreased by approximately 1.8 per mil over the past 100 years. The long term trend in 13a may be used to impose constraints on the release of carbon from the biosphere, using model formulations that provide a detailed description of the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle and the transport of carbon within the ocean, as discussed below

The phrase “general agreement” is typical of all such arguments:  freely translated it means the isotope data agree in sign but not in magnitude.

The remainder of your post is circular argument; i.e.  “The long term trend in 13a may be used to impose constraints on the release of carbon from the biosphere, using model formulations that provide a detailed description of the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle and the transport of carbon within the ocean, as discussed below.”

Simply, if it is assumed that the “terrestrial component of the carbon cycle and the transport of carbon within the ocean” are known then it is possible to make the model fit with a desired result.  This fitting is simply achieved because the components are not known to any significant degree.  And the result of the fit is not a proof that the used assumption is correct.

The Montsouris data are fully examined by Beck who uses them in his determination that in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries there were times of atmospheric CO2 concentration much higher than now. Refer Ernst-Georg Beck's paper 180 Years accurate CO2 Gas analysis of Air by Chemical Methods PDF


Quote:
Finally, here is some solid analysis and thoroughly founded conclusions diametrically opposed to yours from people to whom this already really matters. Of course, it affects most people i the end, as less and less corn is available each year for food and feed as the still reducing crops get turned into ethanol. The only way to support your non-hypothesis might be to ignore the fact that Iowa crops are suffering more and more thermal stress - stress which is completely inexplicable in the absence of climate change models.:
http://www.geology.iastate.edu/gccourse/model/co2/seedsci.html

The link is to a story that simply reflects the point of view of the IPCC. It doesn't add anything substantial to the point that Iowa crops may be suffering (already) from thermal stress. I ask you to substantiate that with trends of drought/rain periods and trends in crop yields for Iowa. Including the 30's of the previous century. I in turn can show you the (non-"corrected") temperature record of the USA (where 1934 still is the warmest year)...

-iolo




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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #108 on: 2007-05-30 15:12:37 »
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[Hermit] Iolo, don't forget that the IPCC does represent the scientific consensus and that this has a certain significance. Most of those trying to argue against an anthromorhic responsibility have given up at the overwhelming weight of the multidisciplinary evidence. I can see you are made of tougher stuff :-)

[Hermit] This looked interesting:

Refer Ernst-Georg Beck's paper 180 Years accurate CO2 Gas analysis of Air by Chemical Methods PDF

[Hermit] Unfortunately the link seems broken.

[Hermit] A lot of things can stress plants. Heat and drought are two of the nastier that are causing more damage than weeds and insects these days. But despite seeing more efficient use of resistance engineered crops and greater acreages coming out of CRP being planted with corn the rate of increase in production has slowed to the point where the Pork Producer's Association is calling for an end to subsidies for ethanol production in Iowa, simply  because there isn't sufficient seed or derivatives left to meet the feed requirements of the current livestock operations.

Kind Regards

Hermit
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #109 on: 2007-05-31 05:28:30 »
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Dear Hermit,

[Hermit] Iolo, don't forget that the IPCC does represent the scientific consensus and that this has a certain significance. Most of those trying to argue against an anthromorhic responsibility have given up at the overwhelming weight of the multidisciplinary evidence. I can see you are made of tougher stuff :-)

[Iolo] I agree with your comment regarding the IPCC. And as far as being "made of tougher stuff" hmmm well I suppose so - but I am mindful that the resilience is not simply a product of avoiding change. And yes, I am not always successful at this as our discussion highlights.   .. (I thank you for that BTW)

I will get back to you with a working link to the Ernst-Georg Beck paper.

with respect,
-iolo.
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #110 on: 2007-05-31 11:54:09 »
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source: The Dilbert Blog

Having worked my way through the global warming issue, starting from 100% ignorance and advancing to somewhere in the top 10% of what the uninformed public knows about the topic, thanks to lots of help from your comments, I have come to the following plateau of understanding.

1. The earth is getting warmer, and human activity is an important part of it. I base this conclusion on the lack of credible peer reviewed work to the contrary and the mountain of work that confirms human-induced warming. While individual studies might be wrong, it’s extremely unlikely the entire field has been so thoroughly duped.

2. There is plenty of bullshit on both sides of the issue. The people arguing that humans are not causing relatively rapid rises in temperatures are under-informed, misinformed, or suffering from bad thinking and bad analogies.

3. The people who are well-informed about global warming are overstating the case by conflating the well-studied fact of human-created warming with the less-than-certain predictions of what happens because of the extra warming. And there’s a tendency to leave out the “why I might be wrong” parts of the argument. I call that bullshit.

4. The people who say global warming is irrelevant because we should all be recycling and using less fossil fuel for other reasons anyway don’t understand the size of the problem. Ordinary conservation in the industrialized nations won’t put a dent in it.

5. The people predicting likely doom because of global warming have not made their case. Humans are incredibly adaptive. And technological breakthroughs happen in steps, not predictable straight lines. Every other predicted type of global doom hasn’t happened because of human resourcefulness. No climate model can predict human resourcefulness.

6. Some say that even a small chance of worldwide catastrophe is worth the “insurance” of working to reduce the risk to zero, even at astronomical expense. But how small is a “small” risk? And how does the risk of global warming stack up to the other global risks for which we could use our limited resources? That’s where I hit the wall on my understanding of the issue.

My best guess for the future is that global warming continues, conservation doesn’t take hold in the less developed countries because of simple economics and corruption, and something “big” has to be done by the richest players. I think that something “big” will be mammoth carbon dioxide “scrubbers” to clean the atmosphere. It’s technically possible, but not economical. The economical part will either be solved or become a moot point if the alternative is global annihilation.

The Y2K scenario is a bad analogy to global warming but it’s instructive in one minor way. When there’s a certain deadline, humans can meet it more effectively than you might think. Global warming hasn’t given us the two-minute warning yet. When it does, I like our odds.

[Update: Interesting link on reusing carbon dioxide: http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/kyoto/capturing-carbon.html]
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #111 on: 2007-06-10 09:20:51 »
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Climate changes already affecting the West, experts tell Senate


Source: McClatchy Newspapers

Authors: Les Blumenthal
Dated: 2007-06-06
Dateline: Washington

With snowfall diminishing at "statistically significant" rates, spring runoff coming earlier and a dead zone the size of Rhode Island in the ocean off the Oregon coast, senators were told Wednesday that global climate change is already being felt in the West.

Dam operators, water district managers, farmers, conservationists and scientists all predicted mounting problems as scarce water supplies dwindle further in an area stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the desert Southwest.

"The warming in the West can now confidently be attributed to rising greenhouse gases and are not explained by any combination of natural factors," said Philip Mote, head of the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington.

Mote said some models show temperatures in the West could rise by 6 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming years. Signs of climate change, such as lilacs blooming earlier in the spring, are just a "harbinger of changes to come," he said.

Among other things, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources water and power subcommittee learned:
  • Spring snow pack already has declined at nearly 75 percent of all weather recording stations in Washington, Oregon and California, and the spring runoff is coming two weeks earlier than in the past.
  • Southern California is experiencing its driest year on record, and Lake Mead, which supplies water to large parts of the fast-growing Southwest, could be empty in 10 years.
  • By some estimates, populations of Pacific salmon in the Northwest could drop between 20 percent and 40 percent by 2050, with even greater losses in California and Idaho. Western trout populations eventually could fall by more than 60 percent.
  • A dead zone of "very low dissolved oxygen" has appeared every year in the Pacific Ocean off the Oregon coast since 2001, and unlike other ocean dead zones, pollution or other human activity isn't believed to be the cause. Instead, some scientists say there may be a "fundamental change" occurring in the ocean off the West Coast, changes that may involve wind patterns "modified" by climate change.
  • Tens of thousands of irrigated acres will fall out of production as water supplies tighten, and tensions over water supplies will only be exacerbated as the effects of climate change deepen.
  • These changes will force us to adapt how we manage irrigation and agriculture, our hydropower system, salmon recovery, municipal water supplies and flood control," said Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., who chaired the hearing. "We need a real strategy to keep our region strong and to respond to any impacts we observe."

While all of the witnesses said more scientific modeling was needed to provide a more focused picture of climate change effects on specific regions in the West, Cantwell seemed impatient that federal, state and local agencies might not be doing sufficient planning.

Terry Fulp, who manages operations at Hoover Dam and Lake Mead for the Bureau of Reclamation, said he has the flexibility he needs to manage water supplies. But under questioning from Cantwell, Fulp said the bureau probably needs to be developing longer-range plans to deal with the effects of climate change on its operations.

In Washington state, Tim Culbertson, general manager of the Grant County Public Utility District, said interim storage reservoirs are being considered at Black Rock in the Yakima Valley and at Crab Creek in the Columbia Basin Project.

Cantwell said Congress and the federal government may have to rethink its skepticism over building more reservoirs, which can be filled when flows are high and drained during summer months.

"We have turned away from reservoirs, right or wrong," Cantwell said. "Maybe we should rethink that."

Culbertson also testified that the Grant County PUD, which operates two major dams on the Columbia River, is considering adding turbines at water storage facilities and has been tracking the development of "microturbines," which could be placed in irrigation canals to generate electricity.
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #112 on: 2007-07-16 07:35:52 »
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British man calls North Pole swim a tragedy

[Hermit: Not so long since we reported the first trip to the North Pole without using an icebreaker. Now a vessel has been made optional.]

Source: Canadian Press
Authors: Not Attributed
Dated: 2007-07-16
Dateline: Toronto

[volor=yellow]A British swimmer who says he wants to wake up politicians around the world to the threat of climate change has successfully completed a kilometre-long swim in the freezing water of the North Pole.[/color]

Lewis Gordon Pugh swam Sunday for 18 minutes and 50 seconds in temperatures of minus 1.8 degrees Celsius in just Speedo briefs, cap and goggles.

"I am obviously ecstatic to have succeeded but this swim is a triumph and a tragedy,'' the 37-year-old British lawyer said after coming out of the water.

"A triumph that I could swim in such ferocious conditions but a tragedy that it's possible to swim at the North Pole.''

Pugh said he hoped that his swim will make world leaders take climate change seriously.

"The decisions which they make over the next few years will determine the biodiversity of our world,'' he said.

"I want my children, and their children, to know that polar bears are still living in the Arctic -- these creatures are on the front line up here.''

Swimming has given him a unique perspective on climate change, Pugh says on his website.

"I have witnessed retreating glaciers, decreasing sea ice, coral bleaching, severe droughts and the migration of animals to colder climates.''

"It's as a result of these experiences that I am determined to do my bit to raise awareness about the fragility of our environment and to encourage everyone to take action.''

Training for the challenge in northern Norway, Pugh said last month that he would place the flags of 10 countries at 100-metre intervals in the snow alongside his path through the water, representing the homes of the people on his team. The fifth flag would be Canada's.

"Canada is so important to me. Your government has sort of lurched away from the environment a little bit. It's a dream to try to get my message in to Canada,'' Pugh said in June.

Calling it the hardest swim of his life, Pugh said Sunday that the water was black when he jumped in.

"It was like jumping into a dark black hole.  It was frightening. The pain was immediate and felt like my body was on fire,'' said Pugh, who's an ambassador for the World Wildlife Fund UK.

"I was in excruciating pain from beginning to end and I nearly quit on a few occasions.''

Colin Butfield of WWF UK called the challenge "a bitter sweet victory, as this swim has only been possible because of climate change.''

Pugh is known for his epic swims in waters from the Antarctic to the Indian Ocean.
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #113 on: 2007-07-17 15:48:04 »
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Global Warming now world's most boring topic: report

by: Jim Schembri
date: July 18, 2007
source: The Age

Global warming and the debate over whether man-made carbon gas emissions are having a detrimental influence on climate change has been ranked as the most boring topic of conversation on earth, according to a new report.

The issue of global warming far out-performed other contenders for the title, such as the production of goat cheese, the musical genius of the artist formerly known as P Diddy and media speculation over the likely outcome of the upcoming federal election.

These topics still tracked strongly, according to the report, but global warming was identified as the topic most likely to prompt people into feigning heart attacks so as to avoid hearing the phrases "procrastination penalty", "precautionary principle" and "peer-reviewed analysis" ever again.

The study, conducted by a non-partisan think tank located somewhere between the small township of Tibooburra and the NSW border, identified global warming as the current topic of choice for people who want their dinner party to finish early.

According to the parents in the survey, global warming has now replaced the traditional bedtime story when it comes to putting children to sleep. The study found the topic was also being used instead of water cannon by riot police around the world to disperse crowds.

In a key finding, the survey revealed that the amount of damaging carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of discussing the global warming issue now exceeds the greenhouse gas emissions of northern China.

The survey also raised a number of important issues regarding the global warming debate.

Of those surveyed, 83 per cent said that while they understood both sides of the issue, they did not understand Al Gore.

Participants in the study were asked whether Gore's film An Inconvenient Truth had helped enlighten people to the importance of the global warming issue.

The standard response was that if the issue of global warming is as important and urgent to Gore as he keeps saying every time he is on Letterman, then why didn't he make the movie during the eight years he was vice-president of the United States, the second most powerful position in the world? Why did he wait until his political career was dead?

The issue was also raised as to why Gore personally came out to promote his film in Australia - a relatively insignificant market - and then make a big deal about all the carbon off-setting he had done to counter the pollution his trip had generated. Over 95 per cent of those who took part in the survey wanted to know why he didn't just do it all from his house via satellite.

Other key findings of the survey were:

* 89 per cent wanted to know how it was possible for humans to control the climate, given that they have enough trouble forecasting it;

* 96 per cent believe those who use the term "climate change denial" are attempting to equate it with "Holocaust denial";

* 100 per cent of these respondents also believe such people should receive lengthy prison terms for crimes against the English language;

* 79 per cent of the bands that took part in the Live Earth event did so because they feared the planet would be destroyed by global warming before they had a chance to receive free worldwide television exposure;

* 87 per cent only tuned in to watch the lead singer from Sneaky Sound System, who is hot;

* 92 per cent of those same people watched her on mute because they didn't want to hear that song again;

Of all the issues raised in the survey, most common was whether the global warming debate was all just an elaborate ruse designed to sell stuff.

The study highlighted how those who subscribe to the prophecy of global warming automatically commit themselves to purchasing a vast array of expensive products, whereas sceptics don't have to buy anything to support their point of view.

Over 98 per cent of people surveyed also predicted that the standard response from global warming proponents to that last statement would be: "yeah, it won't cost anything - except the future of your planet".

To obtain a copy of the full results of this survey please send $120 to this office. Cash only, please. No student concessions available.

----

-iolo

PS. Did you hear about the one where some dude called Eske used recovered DNA to show that the Greenland ice sheet was forested in the past? Shit man, so the ice sheet actually survived through the last interglacial (with temperatures up to 5 C higher than today)? Or, what about the one about a dude called Armstrong ... no, not the moon dude, the one saying the IPCC couldn't predict the date of its own birthday?

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the heat goes down
« Reply #114 on: 2007-08-09 04:15:19 »
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Well, Hansen and his merry men have agreed with Steve McIntyre that there is an error in their calculations, and have adjusted the post 2000 data downwards ... discussion at:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1880

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1868

Here is an historical look:




I note that even after the recent correction, the change in US temperature since 1970 in the most recent dataset is much larger than using the June 2000 dataset ...

Also, in this new GISS version, 1998 is no longer the warmest year, 1934 is ... for the salient details see "GISS Has Reranked US Temperature Anomalies" at: ClimateSci

-iolo
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #115 on: 2007-08-09 09:52:13 »
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Massive Storms, Biblical Floods, Scorching Heat
Weather Is Breaking Records and Making Headlines Around the World


[Hermit: As I have noted from the beginning, it should be called Global Climate Change, not Warming. But let's continue with the story.]

Source:
Authors: Not Credited
Dated: 2007-08-09

New York City is cleaning up this morning after a massive weather system roared through Wednesday, dumping up to 3 inches of rain, paralyzing the mass transit system and spawning a tornado that touched down in Brooklyn.

It's believed to be the first twister to hit Brooklyn since the late 1800s.

Classified as an F2 tornado, capable of winds between 111 mph and 135 mph, the twister snapped tree trunks like toothpicks, peeled open roofs and ripped off the sides of stately old brownstone homes.

The rain sent torrents of water into the nation's largest subway system, stopping trains in their tracks. Some had to be backed up to retreat from rising water. Thousands of commuters were stranded, late to work or never got there at all.

New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer is demanding the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs the subway system, explain why measures to improve storm drainage apparently did not work.

One Brooklyn man may have said it best, "Whaddayoutalkin' about a tornado? We ain't in Kansas!"

Extreme Weather From Coast to Coast

This 100-year weather rarity is just one of a laundry list of extreme weather events around the world this year — from Asia, where tropical storms are adding to new rainfall records, to England's wettest three-month period ever, to the Arabian Peninsula's first tropical cyclone..

In the United States, it seems like the South is melting in the heat, parts of Texas have 10 times the normal rainfall last month and dozens of wildfires are scorching the bone-dry West.

Although the recent wacky weather has no clear-cut cause, the extreme weather is getting more scientists to sound the alarm.

"We've only seen the beginning part of the impact of global warming and I think people on the street are starting to feel it with more intense heat waves and more intense weather," said Brenda Ekwurzel, of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

In Atlanta, they're sweating through triple digits — 100 degrees for the first time in seven years. The air is hard to breathe and a code red smog alert has gone into effect.

Relief agencies have already delivered water to the elderly in Atlanta and scores of other cities.

Richmond, Va.; Columbia, S.C.; and Baltimore are just three of more than a dozen cities whose temperatures have hit 100 degrees or higher. With humidity, it felt even worse. In parts of North Carolina, it felt like 115 degrees; some places are even handing out free fans.

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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #116 on: 2007-08-10 11:43:03 »
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And I say it should be called Global Climate Opportunist - it is not warming anymore but you cant deny it is not changing! Because we all know that the climate never changed until we pesky humans got involved ....

-----

Edge 219 - August 10, 2007

(9,800 words)

This EDGE edition is available online at
http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge219.html

----------------------------------------------------
THE THIRD CULTURE
----------------------------------------------------
HERETICAL THOUGHTS ABOUT SCIENCE AND SOCIETY
By Freeman Dyson

My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.


FREEMAN DYSON is professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study, in Princeton. His professional interests are in mathematics and astronomy. Among his many books are Disturbing the Universe, Infinite in All Directions Origins of Life, From Eros to Gaia, Imagined Worlds, and The Sun, the Genome, and the Internet. His most recent book, Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the Universe (Page Barbour Lectures), is being published this month by University of Virgina Press.

Freeman Dyson's Edge Bio Page
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/bios/dysonf.html

-iolo

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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #117 on: 2007-08-10 15:40:17 »
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The trouble as your physics friend observes is that he is a lone out-of-field voice arguing against a conclusive in-field consensus over a number of theories which seem to have made competent predictions of observed events which are qualitatively and quantitatively different from those directly observed and recorded and also from those indirectly inferred using multiple methods. Note that we are getting more and more physics based and observation based results pointing to massive ecosystem changes. As the 6.5 humans are a part of the ecosystem and very much dependent upon it, it behoves us to be extremely concerned. Particularly as cheap relatively clean fossil fuels are already in short supply meaning that we are going to switch (as has already happened in the US, to extremely dirty previously mothballed coal fired plants and high sulfur/radium fuels, and much higher CO2 and Methane releases per joule delivered, even as China increases  its coal fired generation capacity at a rate greater than a power station per week.

Kind Regards

Hermit

PS I suggest that "Global Warming" is a poor label when the predicted result for some areas is localized cooling... self-evidently it confuses the heck out of some people, particularly those prone to cherry pick evidence.
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #118 on: 2007-08-11 03:30:31 »
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Quote from: Hermit on 2007-08-10 15:40:17   
PS I suggest that "Global Warming" is a poor label when the predicted result for some areas is localized cooling...

Your computer model predicts localized warming and localized cooling - and this is a revelation how exactly? "Oh my God!! The globe warms in some spots and cools in others?!?!" "Who would have thought?"

Gimme a break.


Quote:
self-evidently it confuses the heck out of some people, particularly those prone to cherry pick evidence.

Cherry picking seems popular. Whether it is a flood or drought, higher than average rainfall or lower than average rainfall, stronger and more frequent hurricanes, etc. just about any news-worthy weather condition these days is blamed on 'climate change,' and you want to discuss cherry picking?

AGHG = hypothesis.

-iolo
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Re:The Flipping Point
« Reply #119 on: 2007-08-11 17:28:07 »
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[Blunderov] I have been in a quandry for some while regarding the AGW debate. This is in no small part due to the arguments that Iolo has very effectively presented. It is true that there are very grave problems with inferential conclusions. It is in the nature of things that data can never be complete (amongst other objections). My mind is now clear on the matter though. The precautionary principle demands that we accept this growing preponderance of evidence as sufficient cause to take action to reduce carbon and other emissions radically. I would go so far as to say that it is now almost as much a moral issue as it is a scientific one in much the same way that it is a moral issue to inform your lover if you have possibly been exposed to HIV. (Don't even get me started on HIV skepticism...)

scientificactivist

Global Warming Denialism at Its Best
Category: blogosphere • global warming • media
Posted on: August 11, 2007 1:54 PM, by Nick Anthis

August 9, 2007, will go down in history as a great day for global warming denialism. On Wednesday, the 8th, well-known global warming denialist Steve McIntyre published a post on his blog about NASA finding a flaw in some of its temperature data that led to a minor reordering of the list of the hottest years on record. Not surprisingly, the conservative media and blogs went hog wild the next day. The mainstream media even got a bit carried away... despite the fact that we're talking about changes of hundredths of degrees here and that these numbers are only for North America (and don't affect the worldwide leaderboard).

To see this truly put into perspective, though, check out RealClimate or Bad Astronomy. Also, Deltoid and The Island of Doubt go into more detail about the freewheeling response of the conservative media/blogosphere.

democraticunderground

Analysts See ‘Simply Incredible’ Shrinking of Floating Ice in the Arctic 
Source: NY Times

The area of floating ice in the Arctic has shrunk more this summer than in any other summer since satellite tracking began in 1979, and it has reached that record point a month before the annual ice pullback typically peaks, experts said yesterday.

The Big Melt A series describing the effects of warming on the environment and the people of the Arctic.
Postcards From the Arctic Andrew C. Revkin's three Arctic multimedia reports. The cause is probably a mix of natural fluctuations, like unusually sunny conditions in June and July, and long-term warming from heat-trapping greenhouse gases and sooty particles accumulating in the air, according to several scientists.

William L. Chapman, who monitors the region at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and posted a Web report on the ice retreat yesterday, said that only an abrupt change in conditions could prevent far more melting before the 24-hour sun of the boreal summer set in September. “The melting rate during June and July this year was simply incredible,” Mr. Chapman said. “And then you’ve got this exposed black ocean soaking up sunlight and you wonder what, if anything, could cause it to reverse course.”

Mark Serreze, a sea-ice expert at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., said his center’s estimates differed somewhat from those of the Illinois team, and by the ice center’s reckoning the retreat had not surpassed the satellite-era record set in 2005. But it was close even by the center’s calculations, he said, adding that it is almost certain that by September, there will be more open water in the Arctic than has been seen for a long time. Ice experts at NASA and the University of Washington echoed his assessment.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/10/science/earth/10arcti...





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