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MoEnzyme
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #45 on: 2005-11-04 12:56:04 »
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Indeed from this moment forward, I dub the war in Iraq >>BUSH'S WAR<<

The other night I had a a bit of a chat with Salamantis in #virus and it seems that among his repertoire of well memorized Neocon apologies was this idea that because of some particular screwups in the first gulf war back when daddy was prez, that we needed to invade Iraq.  So daddy made me do it!  That actually made more sense than I cared to admit at the moment, so that made me come up with the idea for the name, since it dealt with the war in such a father/son sort of way.  Bush's War . . . . . . I like it.  It's short, its sweet, and reads about right for the history books.

:::me repeats several more times:::

Bush's War, etc . . . .

Hugs and Kisses,

-Jake


Quote from: Jake Sapiens on 2005-11-04 12:31:22   

Since we have strayed so far from intelligent design, I say why change now?


Quote from: Mentor on 2005-11-04 11:51:00   

Religious fundamentalism in the form of evangelicals and american baptists uniting behind the republican party is the real threat to America. Islam is a convinient distraction from their overt power grab.  The goal of islamic fundamentalism may be to destroy the infidel. But realistically they have little power to damage us. Rather, the islamists are unwittingly duped into being a tool for christian fundamentalism's crusaid for world domination. Every time the right wing power grab is questioned by the public, they simply rattle the Islamists cage.

This is very close to how I see it.  I wouldn't however call the Islamic Jihadists the dupe in this equation.  We provide them with a powerful, yet compliant enemy, and a theme for recruitment.  One might feel tempted to say that the Bush administration was the duped one, however as individual people they seemed to have managed to personally enrich themselves even while selling out basic American interests and security in a global sense.  Meanwhile security in the homeland looks ominous as well since the administration seems incapable of planning or competantly responding to even the most basic and predictable of natural disasters not to mention man-made ones.  Somebody is certainly the chump here, and I think it is us, the US citizenry who are being played willingly or not.
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #46 on: 2005-11-04 15:05:08 »
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #47 on: 2005-11-04 15:24:52 »
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #48 on: 2005-11-04 17:21:17 »
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #49 on: 2005-11-06 16:20:56 »
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Quote from: Blunderov on 2005-10-27 04:33:48   

[Blunderov] It seems debatable that humouring ID in the interests of promoting scientific enquiry amongst the superstitious would be a harmless concession. IMO it would be downright contradictory and its fruit would be a generation of soothsayers-with-calculators.

ID is the old cosmological argument newly come to town as a sharp-dressed man. If ANY 'irreducibly complex' system must have been designed, then so too must the cosmos. Whatever its merits or lack thereof, this ancient argument has nothing to do with science. It is a philosophical question.

(Interesting though is the tell-tale tang of relativism that hangs in the air like cordite.)

Will ID win though? Very likely. Horoscopes are still published in most newspapers.

Abracadabra.


I think belief in horoscopes is intellectually simpler than belief in "Intelligent Design", and hence often gets passed off as harmless.  If somebody tells me about irreducible complexity, it advertises not only 1) that they are creationists, but 2) that they are really serious it.  Time to turn on the air filters.  Horoscopes don't seem to raise that much of a response, more likely harmless than not.
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #50 on: 2005-11-09 06:57:23 »
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Apparently the Kansas Board of education has voted in an "Intelligent Design" curriculum for that state.  On the other hand Voters in Pennsylvania soundly rejected similar republican moves by a school board there.  Apparently the Kansas board of education isn't up for election this time, but neocons pushing ID everywhere should take note of this voter repudiation.  Excerpts below the links. More material at links.

http://blog.sciam.com/index.php?title=it_s_over_in_dover&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

All eight members up for re-election to the Pennsylvania school board that had been sued for introducing the teaching of intelligent design as an alternative to evolution in biology class were swept out of office yesterday by a slate of challengers who campaigned against the intelligent design policy.
...
The election results were a repudiation of the first school district in the nation to order the introduction of intelligent design in a science class curriculum.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/11/09/ap/tech/mainD8DOQFOO3.shtml

(AP) Voters came down hard Tuesday on school board members who backed a statement on intelligent design being read in biology class, ousting eight Republicans and replacing them with Democrats who want the concept stripped from the science curriculum.


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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #51 on: 2005-11-09 23:40:01 »
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #52 on: 2005-11-14 15:30:17 »
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Religion will continue because it is just too convinient to have all the answers provided in one little book. It's not important that it's wrong. It's important that it's easy. Science is too hard for the intellectually lazy.
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #53 on: 2005-11-14 21:07:03 »
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Quote from: Mentor on 2005-11-14 15:30:17   

Religion will continue because it is just too convinient to have all the answers provided in one little book. It's not important that it's wrong. It's important that it's easy. Science is too hard for the intellectually lazy.

Is it intellectual laziness or lack of education? If the latter there is still hope for the future.
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #54 on: 2005-11-14 21:14:27 »
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Intelligent Design or Insidious Design...?

Today, some read the evidence of nature and find no evidence for the existence of a Deity. Richard Dawkins, the contemporary biologist, notorious atheist, penned a book with the title "The Blind Watchmaker". He argues that "The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference". In the context of the warfare between evolution and creationism in the United States, the problem is perhaps less with believers who read the Bible as a literal account of Creation and more with believers who read Richard Dawkins as a literal account of evolution.
The metaphor of nature as a watch, and God its watchmaker is perhaps one of the most famous metaphors in the philosophy of science and haunts us to this day, as we see in the current debates about 'equal time' for Intelligent Design Theory in the science curriculum of public schools.

Intelligent Design advocates argue that random genetic drift and natural selection alone cannot account for the 'irreducible complexity' in certain natural phenomena. The classic example of this is the human eye, to which Charles Darwin himself called attention. How could such a complex mechanism with so many independent parts have arisen by gradual incremental changes, when the mechanism would not function without all of the parts working together? Intelligent Design advocates argue that some outside agency would be needed to 'specify complexity', though they do not define who or what the 'designing' agency is. This can be seen as a new version of the God-of-the-Gaps argument and suffers from all of the earlier attempts to insert God as an explanatory fix in science's progressive history of accounting for the unknown. Besides, God is either everywhere present in all processes of creation or God might as well be nowhere.

So if God is everywhere, then why is God so hard to perceive? One could imagine a God who would be more like a Chairman Mao or a Comrade Stalin. This God would have designed a universe with photographs of himself hung everywhere in nature. We would be compelled to believe in the existence of this God, because everywhere we turned with our microscopes, telescopes, and other devices, there would be both the evidence for his existence and of course also the secret police to enforce our acknowledgment. Everything in the universe would occur by divine order, micromanaged in five-year plans and designed in a command economy. We might wonder whether such a dictator God would be worthy of our admiration and love, but there would be no doubt, no uncertainty. Of course, science is yet to find an unequivocal "made by God" label attached to nature.

If the only other choice we have is the literal reading of Richard Dawkins, however, then maybe we should stop teaching evolution altogether. Mere survival and reproduction do not provide adequate purposes for human aspirations. Too much of this kind of "truth" may not be wholesome for our children or society. The core of the evolution wars is whether a scientific understanding of biology allows room for religious and philosophical commitments to purpose in human life, purposes that somehow also must connect to the unfolding history of the universe. While scientists often wax poetic about nature, evoking wonder, awe, and indeed reverence, they mostly lack philosophical and theological language to contextualize such feelings and motivations as continuous with perennial spiritual quests. The public voices of "science" are more often than not promoting atheism, confusing the boundaries between science and scientism.

The history of the anti-evolution debates in the United States is less about biology and more about morality. Going back to the 1925 Scopes Trial, the progressive politician, William Jennings Bryan, got involved largely because of his objections to Social Darwinism and Eugenics, which at the time were widely used to justify any number of social injustices. Thirty states had eugenics laws. Indeed, the "science" most used to justify Nazism was first published in the peer-reviewed journals of the United States.

Today, the anti-evolution arguments are quite similar -- evolution equals materialism equals atheism equals nihilism equals immorality. The last Supreme Court case to examine this question, the 1987 case Edwards v. Aguillard ruled against Creation Science not on the basis of the science, but that it was a sectarian religion and thus could not be taught in the public schools. The anti-evolution forces regrouped, reorganized, and united around a 'science-only' tactic - calling evolution 'just a theory' and requesting equal time for Intelligent Design Theory. The old Creation Science arguments have been resurrected, but without mention of the Bible or officially naming the reputed designer. Almost ostensibly like a conspiracy for insidious influence and own personal design. But i wont be bias here.

School boards, educators, scientists, clergy and concerned citizens could quickly resolve the debate by first focusing on what happened when instead of getting dragged into the how and why debate. It is vital that we separate known natural history from the interpretation of that natural history. We can debate the meaning of the Cambrian Explosion, but we should not be denying that it happened. Scientific evidence for a long and evolving natural history of life on this planet has grown dramatically and profoundly in last two centuries.

The term 'evolution' appropriately applies also to this known natural history of the planet. Since Darwin's time, we know a lot more about this natural history, such that even responsible Intelligent Design advocates admit to a long Earth history. These ID advocates rarely talk about natural history, however, because they do not want to alienate the Young Earth Creationist who constitutes the base of their movement. We should not conflate the "what and when" questions with the "how and why" questions.

There is nothing necessarily scientifically wrong with believing that God, by whatever name and by whatever means, is actively involved in the entire four billion year life drama and the even longer and much larger cosmic adventure. Based on current science, we would have to say that God reuses DNA, hemoglobin, cell parts, developmental processes, skeletal structures, organ processes, and much more. God creates by recycling. And the building blocks are shared between humans and even very remote species, as in the human eye, which adapts plant technology to do its light detection work. Scientifically, there would be no necessary problem believing in such a Creator, as long as we acknowledge that the process took a very long time relative to our human life span. Species have come and gone and here we are. How does God accomplish this? Well, we would not know, but it certainly seems likely that God also made important use of some random processes and natural selection; t he latter we shall re-contextualize at the Great Eucharistic Law - eat and be eaten. And yes, there is a profoundly sacrificial dimension to life, so our gratitude is justified, especially for the food we are about to receive.

To focus on natural history, what happened when, is to separate the more responsible Intelligent Designers from the Young Earth Creationist extremists. As long as we are not denying natural history, then we can entertain and excite our students with lots of debates within biology about how and why. Young people get very excited by examining the meaning and purpose of their lives, a personal discussion that needs to be contextualized within an entire universe, which of course, is exactly what Richard Dawkins is also trying to do. Atheism also has a place at the round table of plausible worldviews, but it cannot simply claim to be 'scientific'.

There are many purely scientific debates about whether random genetic drift and natural selection are really adequate to account for the florescence of life forms found in nature. Developmental systems theory, mathematical patterns, convergent evolution, symbiosis, multi-level selection theory, genetic bureaucracies, niche creation, and most importantly for humans, Lamarckian patterns of cultural evolution, are just some of the hot debates in contemporary biology and anthropology that relativize Intelligent Design Theory as a narrowly partisan movement within science (and religion). It would be great if our children got excited about these debates within the sciences and mysteries of life.

The problem, however, is not with the term 'intelligent'. The "intelligence" of nature is not in the eye of the scientific beholder, it is in the phenomena themselves. This 'intelligibility' is the precondition for science. The metaphor of 'design', however, is much more problematic. Why should we limit God's generativity to a term taken from human architecture and engineering? There are much more interesting metaphors for God - artist, lover, friend, parent, teacher, motivator - all of which are also ultimately inadequate in describing that which transcends all and is also everywhere present.

Part of the problem is that we do not teach our children about religion and philosophy in the public schools. There are no Constitutional barriers to such curricula, as long as we are not sectarian. The solution to the evolution wars proposed above is itself recycled medieval Muslim, Jewish, and Christian theology, but that is another story waiting to be taught and debated anew.

                Fox
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Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
« Reply #55 on: 2005-11-15 14:24:46 »
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Fox,I suggest that reading Dawkins is vastly healthier and infinitely more inspiring than reading any number of religious tracts. Religion never inspires thought, it terminates it by giving god as an answer to every question, and utterly disallowing the queriant from peeking behind the tattered curtain or tracking patterns of thought dogmatically held to be immoral. Then too, like claims that religion is required to teach the mass "morality" - which is in fact an inversion of reality, see e.g. Virian Ethics: The End of God Referenced Ethics and possibly Virian Ethics: The Soul in the Machine and the Question of Virian Ethics, "Irreducible complexity" is an invalid myth - and its supporters know that. True "Irreducible complexity" might cause some explanatory challenges if a valid example of it could be found. But no example has yet been produced (although some putative examples have taken more thought than others to refute). Take for example, the eye you mentioned as an example. We know that many forms of eye have developed over the years, genetic evidence shows that this occurred independently long after we broke away from our cabbage forefather, and we know enough about the physiological process to model these developments and show that "blind" evolution and natural selection are sufficient to explain this development (although, of course, they don't prove that the eye developed in exactly the same way as the model) without introducing a Deus ex Machina which has no explanatory or predictive power, evidence necessitating its existence, place for it to be hiding or mechanism through which it could operate. Which is why an 650 year dead monk, William of Ockham, compels us to prefer Darwin to Deus. Claims made about "irreducible complexity" as it applies to the eye prove only that the person attempting to make the argument is insufficiently educated.

What follows is a quick - yet devastating response to Behe based on excerpts from Behe's empty box (a primary source when dealing with Imaginary Designs) disposing of "irreducible complexity" and from Dawkins, Richard, Where d'you get those peepers?., Vol. 8, New Statesman &  Society, 06-16-1995, pp 29. addressing the evolution of the eye. Dawkins reports on a model which shows that eyes can evolve trivially and in few generations.

Surprise! The gradual paths to Irreducible Complexity

    SPOCK: "He's intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking..."
    Kirk looks at him, smiles.  [ Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan ]

First, let's be clear about something. Michael Behe has not created a "Theory of Intelligent Design" (ID). He offers no general laws, models, or explanations for how design happens, no testable predictions, and no possible way to falsify his hybrid evolution/ID hypothesis. He is simply claiming that design is a fact that is easily detectable in biochemical systems. The real science of ID is yet to come, and Behe just wants to wedge the door open a bit. So what does this magic Intelligent Design Detection Kit look like? Basically open the box and all it contains is a tweezer. Use it to pluck out any part of a system, and if the system stops functioning properly, it must be the product of design. Why? Because it proves that the system was "Irreducibly Complex" (IC)...

    "By irreducible complexity I mean a single system which is composed of several interacting parts that contribute to the basic function, and where the removal of any one of the parts causes the system to effectively cease functioning. An irreducibly complex system cannot be produced gradually by slight, successive modifications of a precursor system, since any precursor to an irreducibly complex system is by definition nonfunctional." [Behe]

But read this argument carefully. Behe is not offering a way to detect design, he is offering a way to falsify gradual Darwinian evolution, and by elimination, conclude design. But there is one big problem- his falsifier has been falsified. The conclusion that an "irreducibly complex system cannot be produced gradually by slight, successive modifications of a precursor system" is simply wrong. There are at least three different ways that an IC system can be produced by a series of small modifications: 1) Improvements become necessities, 2) Loss of scaffolding 3) Duplication and divergence. By Behe's definition, many systems we see around us are IC, and yet have developed gradually. Think of the chaotic growth of towns into large cities, the self-organizing forces behind market economies, and the delicate causal webs that define complex ecosystems. Evolutionary algorithms run on computers routinely evolve irreducibly complex designs. So given an IC system, it could either be the product of coordinated design, or of a gradual, cumulative, stochastic process. The truth is, we should expect Darwinian evolution to produce such systems in biology, and not be surprised to find them. The underlying processes are called co-adaptation and co-evolution, and they have been understood for many years. Biochemical structures and pathways are not built up one step at a time in linear assembly-line fashion to meet some static function. They evolve layer upon layer, contingency upon contingency, always in flux, and retooling to serve current functions. The ability of life to evolve in this fashion has itself evolved over time. Detecting IC does not indicate design, and therefore Behe's hypothesis collapses. H. Allen Orr says it best in his perceptive review:

    "Behe's colossal mistake is that, in rejecting these possibilities, he concludes that no Darwinian solution remains. But one does. It is this: An irreducibly complex system can be built gradually by adding parts that, while initially just advantageous, become-because of later changes-essential. The logic is very simple. Some part (A) initially does some job (and not very well, perhaps). Another part (B) later gets added because it helps A. This new part isn't essential, it merely improves things. But later on, A (or something else) may change in such a way that B now becomes indispensable. This process continues as further parts get folded into the system. And at the end of the day, many parts may all be required."

    "The point is there's no guarantee that improvements will remain mere improvements. Indeed because later changes build on previous ones, there's every reason to think that earlier refinements might become necessary. The transformation of air bladders into lungs that allowed animals to breathe atmospheric oxygen was initially just advantageous: such beasts could explore open niches-like dry land-that were unavailable to their lung-less peers. But as evolution built on this adaptation (modifying limbs for walking, for instance), we grew thoroughly terrestrial and lungs, consequently, are no longer luxuries-they are essential. The punch-line is, I think, obvious: although this process is thoroughly Darwinian, we are often left with a system that is irreducibly complex. I'm afraid there's no room for compromise here: Behe's key claim that all the components of an irreducibly complex system 'have to be there from the beginning' is dead wrong."


  • The Fallacy of Conclusion by Analogy

    When it comes to explaining science to the public, analogies and metaphors are essential tools of the trade. We all can better understand something new and unusual, when it is compared to something we already know: a cell is like a factory, the eye is like a camera, an atom is like a billiard ball, a biochemical system is like a mouse trap. An A is like a B, means A shares some conceptual properties with B. It does not mean A has all the properties of B. It does not follow that what is true for B is therefore true for A. Analogies can be used to explain science, but analogies cannot be used to draw conclusions or falsify scientific theories. Yet Behe commits this fallacy throughout his book. For example:

      1. A mousetrap is "irreducibly complex" - it requires all of its parts to work properly.
      2. A mousetrap is a product of design.
      3. The bacterial flagellum  is "irreducibly complex" - it requires all of its parts to work properly.
      4. Therefore the flagellum is like a mouse trap.
      5. Therefore the flagellum is a product of design.

    Where d'you get those peepers?

    Creationist claims that organs like eyes are too complex to have evolved naturally are way wide of the mark, says Richard Dawkins.  In fact, eyes have evolved many times, often in little more than a blink of geological history

    Creationism has enduring appeal, and the reason is not far to seek. It is not, at least for most of the people I encounter, because of a commitment to the literal truth of Genesis or some other tribal origin story. Rather, it is that people discover for themselves the beauty and complexity of the living world and conclude that it "obviously" must have been designed. Those creationists who recognise that Darwinian evolution provides at least some sort of alternative to their scriptural theory often resort to a slightly more sophisticated objection. They deny the possibility of evolutionary intermediates. "X must have been designed by a Creator," people say, "because half an X would not work at all. All the parts of X must have been put together simultaneously; they could not have evolved gradually."

    Thus the creationist's favourite question "What is the use of half an eye?" Actually, this is a lightweight question, a doddle to answer. Half an eye is just 1 per cent better than 49 per cent of an eye, which is already better than 48 per cent, and the difference is significant. A more ponderous show of weight seems to lie behind the inevitable supplementary: "Speaking as a physicist, I cannot believe that there has been enough time for an organ as complicated as the eye to have evolved from nothing. Do you really think there has been enough time?" Both questions stem from the Argument from Personal Incredulity. Audiences nevertheless appreciate an answer, and I have usually fallen back on the sheer magnitude of geological time.

    It now appears that the shattering enormity of geological time is a steam hammer to crack a peanut. A recent study by a pair of Swedish scientists, Dan Nilson and Susanne Pelger, suggests that a ludicrously small fraction of that time would have been plenty. When one says "the" eye, by the way, one implicitly means the vertebrate eye, but serviceable image-forming eyes have evolved between 40 and 60 times, independently from scratch, in many different invertebrate groups. Among these 40-plus independent evolutions, at least nine distinct design principles have been discovered, including pinhole eyes, two kinds of camera-lens eyes, curved-reflector ("satellite dish") eyes, and several kinds of compound eyes. Nilsson and Pelger have concentrated on camera eyes with lenses, such as are well developed in vertebrates and octopuses.

    How do you set about estimating the time required for a given amount of evolutionary change? We have to find a unit to measure the size of each evolutionary step, and it is sensible to express it as a percentage change in what is already there. Nilsson and Pelger used the number of successive changes of x per cent as their unit for measuring changes of anatomical quantities.

    Their task was to set up computer models of evolving eyes to answer two questions. The first was: is there a smooth gradient of change, from flat skin to full camera eye, such that every intermediate is an improvement? (Unlike human designers, natural selection can't go downhill not even if there is a tempting higher hill on the other side of the valley.) Second, how long would the necessary quantity of evolutionary change take?

    In their computer models, Nilsson and Pelger made no attempt to simulate the internal workings of cells. They started their story after the invention of a single light-sensitive cell--it does no harm to call it a photocell. It would be nice, in the future, to do another computer model, this time at the level of the inside of the cell. to show how the first living photocell came into being by step-by-step modification of an earlier, more general-purpose cell. But you have to start somewhere, and Nilsson and Pelger started after the invention of the photocell.

    They worked at the level of tissues: the level of stuff made of cells rather than the level of individual cells. Skin is a tissue, so is the lining of the intestine, so is muscle and liver. Tissues can change in various ways under the influence of random mutation. Sheets of tissue can become larger or smaller in area. They can become thicker or thinner. In the special case of transparent tissues like lens tissue, they can change the refractive index (the light-bending power) of local parts of the tissue.

    The beauty of simulating an eye, as distinct from, say, the leg of a running cheetah, is that its efficiency can be easily mea-optics. The eye is represented as a two-dimensional cross-section, and the computer can easily calculate its visual acuity, or spatial resolution, as a single real number. It would be much harder to come up with an equivalent numerical expression for the efficacy of a cheetah's leg or backbone. Nilsson and Pelger began with a flat retina atop a flat pigment layer and surmounted by a flat, protective transparent layer. The transparent layer was allowed to undergo localised random mutations of its refractive index. They then let the model deform itself at random, constrained only by the requirement that any change must be small and must be an improvement on what went before.

    The results were swift and decisive. A trajectory of steadily mounting acuity led unhesitatingly from the flat beginning through a shallow indentation to a steadily deepening cup, as the shape of the model eye deformed itself on the computer screen. The transparent layer thickened to fill the cup and smoothly bulged its outer surface in a curve. And then, almost like a conjuring trick, a portion of this transparent filling condensed into a local, spherical subregion of higher refractive index. Not uniformly higher, but a gradient of refractive index such that the spherical region functioned as an excellent graded- index lens.

    Graded-index lenses are unfamiliar to human lens-makers, but they are common in living eyes. Humans make lenses by grinding glass to a particular shape. We make a compound lens. like the expensive violet- tinted lenses of modern cameras. by mounting several lenses together, but each one of those individual lenses is made of uniform glass through its whole thickness. A graded-index lens, by contrast, has a continuously varying refractive index with in its own substance. Typically, it has a high refractive index near the centre of the lens. Fish eyes have graded-index lenses. Now it has long been known that, for a graded-index lens, the most aberration-free results are obtained when you achieve a particular theoretical optimum value for the ratio between the focal length of the lens and the radius. This ratio is called Mattiessen's ratio. Nilsson and Pelger's computer model homed in unerringly on Mattiessen's ratio.

    And so to the question of how long all this evolutionary change might have taken. In order to answer this, Nilsson and Pelger had to make some assumptions about genetics in natural populations. They needed to feed their model plausible values of quantities such as "heritability" . Heritability is a measure of how far variation is governed by heredity. The favoured way of measuring it is to see how much monozygotic (that is, "identical") twins resemble each other compared with ordinary twins. One study found the heritability of leg length in male humans to be 77 per cent. A heritability of too per cent would mean that you could measure one identical twin's leg to obtain perfect knowledge of the other twin's leg length, even if the twins were reared apart. A heritability of 0 per cent would mean that the legs of monozygotic twins are no more similar to each other than to the legs of random members of a specified population in a given environment. Some other heritabilities measured for humans are 95 per cent for head breadth, 85 per cent for sitting height. 80 percent for arm length and 79 per cent for stature.

    Heritabilities are frequently more than 50 percent, and Nilsson and Pelger therefore felt safe in plugging a heritability of 50 per cent into their eye model. This was a conservative, or "pessimistic", assumption. Compared with a more realistic assumption of, say, 70 per cent, a pessimistic assumption tends to increase their final estimate of the time taken for the eye to evolve. They wanted to err on the side of overestimation because we are intuitively skeptical of short estimates of the time taken to evolve something as complicated as an eye.

    For the same reason, they chose pessimistic values for the coefficient of variation (that is, for how much variation there typically is in the population) and the intensity of selection (the amount of survival advantage improved eyesight confers). They even went so far as to assume that any new generation differed in only one part of the eye at a time: simultaneous changes in different parts of the eye, which would have greatly speeded up evolution, were outlawed. But even with these conservative assumptions, the time taken to evolve a fish eye from fiat skin was minuscule: fewer than 400,000 generations. For the kinds of small animals we are talking about, we can assume one generation per year, so it seems that it would take less than half a million years to evolve a good camera eye.

    In the light of Nilsson and Pelger's results, it is no wonder "the" eye has evolved at least 40 times independently around the animal kingdom. There has been enough time for it to evolve from scratch 1,500 times in succession within any one lineage. Assuming typical generation lengths for small animals, the time needed for the evolution of the eye, far from stretching credulity with its vastness, turns out to be too short for geologists to measure! It is a geological blink.
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    Salamantis
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    Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
    « Reply #56 on: 2005-11-16 22:14:14 »
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    Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
    « Reply #57 on: 2005-11-20 00:28:15 »
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    Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
    « Reply #58 on: 2005-11-29 14:03:27 »
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    Hermit.

    The weyken of the scientific analogy and elucidation by way of explication to your post was monopolizing; both interesting and admirable.

    There are however a few things I would like to both annotate and clarify.

    Quote from: Hermit on 2005-11-15 14:24:46   
    Fox,I suggest that reading Dawkins is vastly healthier and infinitely more inspiring than reading any number of religious tracts. Religion never inspires thought, it terminates it by giving god as an answer to every question, and utterly disallowing the queriant from peeking behind the tattered curtain or tracking patterns of thought dogmatically held to be immoral. Then too, like claims that religion is required to teach the mass "morality" - which is in fact an inversion of reality


    From what I am aware the Church of Virus is validly described as a religion, do you include all religions in any of your above verses or statement? or do you place the suggestion primarily upon, 'Religion', in respect to those based on the faith of God(s) without perception of axiomatic evidence or the axioms of science?
    I pray you forgive my ignorance, but you were not very specific with your notion of ' Religion' or to which 'Religion(s)' you refer.
    But then truley defining the word religion is fraught with difficulty as all definitions contain at lest one deficiency.

    I would argue that it is human dogmatic religions which never inspire thought and that terminate it with God, through self made ideals of pride and glory.
    It is controling and dominating religions such as these which indeed bear an appearence of wisdom in promoting self-made faith of asceticism and severity to the body, but they are of no value in stopping the indulgence of sin.

    Teaching the mass morality is an inversion of nature, not reality as such. Reality is the chemical and genetic strain of natural precursors, through evolution consisting of electrical singnals and neurons based of genetic coading which we mentally interpreate through our own set of ideals of accepted faith/weyken, whichever they may lie in or be. Faith without works is dead.
    This world was never intended to be created fair, and it certainly has not evolved as such. It is the yearning temptations of natural genetic instinct which is that human will should be taught and placed against, If not for God then for each other.
    Though the 'reality' of doing so is far greater a challenge then to simply proclaim with words.
    But then human nature is not left completly to despair, but merely, as most things, a conflict between two seperate truths. Tainted nature and Pure nature, though both are needed and that which makes us irrevocably human, they are both inextricably linked within us, as conflict, as virtue and sin, as right and wrong, as good and evil.
    Choice is one of the greatest and compelling fates to consist in man, his world, his reality, his nature, his life...now we must choose, for even if we do not choose we have still made a choice, by not to. The fate of choice and is inexorable, it can not be assiduously avoided. so if we have choice then there must be something fundermentally to choose between instead of, at bottom, there being no purpose, no good no evil. Natural instinct and nature can be shunned and thus sin erased through forgivness and compassion.
    Its all to easy to simply give into lust, Greed and Wrath; what is harder is to avoid them and thus grow in understanding, to flower in virtue.
    All it takes is one persons sheer force of love and will, upon the arduous and burdensome path of faith.
    Of course the word weyken is interesting, but it is to easy to attain in comparison with faith.

    If you propose that reading pityless indifference, purposelessness, and that the origin of humans is a random, unplanned event of nature that serves no purpose other than to fill a niche in the ecological scheme, and that this is healthier and more inspiring
    then reading tracts based on love and peace, meaning and hope for one and eachother...then that is your own prerogative and reality. I thank you for your suggestion none the less though.

    Quote from: Hermit on 2005-11-15 14:24:46   
    Claims made about "irreducible complexity" as it applies to the eye prove only that the person attempting to make the argument is insufficiently educated.


    I was making no claims about 'irreducible complexity' in respect to the eye, I was merely emphasising example over opinion, not opinion its self.

    I conclude and emphasize that I have nothing personal against Dawkins or evolution. Indeed i admire there logic and diligence into the complex works of life.
    But like so many other things the awnsers lie not with one side alone...General relativity and Quantum Mechanics is a good example...prehaps a little less hostile and tumultuous then creationism and evolution but analogous none the less.
    I do not doubt natural selection, but the universe is to orderly and to well put together for random and unplanned selection alone, driven by nothing more then sheer chaos.

    But then this is but my humble opinion,
    I am but a sapling amongst  the trees compared with most here.
    I inspire all to simply take it as they will.

                   
                 
                      Fox
    « Last Edit: 2005-11-30 14:37:59 by Fox » Report to moderator   Logged

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    Re:Why Intelligent Design Is Going to Win
    « Reply #59 on: 2005-11-29 19:14:28 »
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    Quote from: Fox on 2005-11-29 14:03:27   

    I do not doubt natural selection, but the universe is to orderly and to well put together for random and unplanned selection alone, driven by nothing more then sheer chaos.

    What exactly is it about the universe that you think cannot be explained as the product of natural processes?
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