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2003-07-15 20:00:09 #virus from 2003-07-15 20:00:00 (showing messages 1-30) Bookmark the permanent url.
20:00:09hermitI don't know of one.
20:00:18Ophis...or should we just get on with tonight's chat since its 22:00
20:00:20LuciferOphis, I will lend you a book with it
20:00:29rhinobayes theorem is very useful in decision theory when you want to ensure some level of service
20:00:31LuciferChat begins now
20:00:33hermitIt is an argument which one of my Profs (A Dutchman) used in the 70s
20:00:52LuciferBayes Theorem... what's the (big) deal?
20:01:03OphisIs that our topic?
20:01:09LuciferMany of you have noticed there is a Cult of Bayes over in #sl4
20:01:10Sat* Sat shrugs
20:01:12rhinoophis, try doomsday argument < http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/cau/paradoxes.pdf
20:01:21SatEli seems smitten with it
20:01:25OphisI'm reading: http://hanson.gmu.edu/nodoom.html
20:01:35LuciferAre they (#sl4) onto something or is this a case of mass delusion?
20:01:36Ophis"Critiquing the Doomsday Argument"
20:02:03LuciferWhat are the real implications of Bayes formula?
20:02:08localrogerIt seems to be an attempt to quantify common sense.
20:02:09rhinonin fact that link was "for" the doomsday arguiment
20:02:10SatI know next to nothing about the theorem. can anyone explain it?
20:02:28Luciferlocalroger, interesting that you should say that
20:02:34rhinonothing is wrong with bayes formula
20:02:46LuciferI was just reading the intro to E.T Jayne's tome
20:02:49rhinoit was originally formulated for probabilistic situations
20:02:49hermitLucifer, Bayers is very useful in three circumstances.
20:03:02hermitYou have known probabilities
20:03:18LuciferJaynes basically starts with the same assertion, it is just common sense made into calculations
20:03:19hermitOr you have a known mechanism
20:04:09hermitOr you have a good guess, and are modifying the guess as you get data in order to obtain a posterior distribution.
20:04:12rhinogoing from statistical evidence to a subjective degree of belief looks like a leap
20:04:13OphisBayes Theorem (I'm quite the neophyte here): A formula/system that allows you to re-assess your position on a given situation based on probability calculations and re-evaluations.
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