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MoEnzyme
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US post election thoughts
« on: 2008-11-07 10:58:36 » |
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I think this deserves a new topic thread. Yes we can Obama, of course, but also a pickup of Democratic seats in both the house and the senate. And don't forget those anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives. For a year that the Democrats did so well it seems odd that all those initiatives won (I've already posted my thoughts on the most prominent CA #8 . . . I was disappointed but not surprised http://www.churchofvirus.org/bbs/index.php?board=69;action=display;threadid=42404). I think it was a good year for polls as well. They turned out to be largely accurate in predicting Obama's win and even the margin of his victory, even though there was much media handwringing about a possible "Bradley Effect" that never materialized. I think that if anyone had racist motives for voting against Obama, it was easy enough to just say "Jeremiah Wright", or voice suspicions that he's really a Muslim - in the GOP that translates into patriotism, not bigotry or racism. Even here in Texas there were some minor gains for Democrats. I think we are at least +3 in the Texas House and +1 in the state senate, I think there are still a few races being counted so that may change. Not as big as Democrats elsewhere, but still a gain.
One last thought on Sarah Palin as she exits stage right . . . When it comes to the infighting between McCain staffers and the Palin people, I'm on her side. Of course I wouldn't put her in charge of a lemonade stand much less the country, but all these criticisms of her are pure sourgrapes. They are basically upset that she was exactly what she advertised herself to be - a conservative maverick. Personally I thought the "Team of Mavericks" was a hillarious oxymoron. By definition there can be no "team of mavericks", because a maverick stands alone. I suppose the McCain team never really thought through the implications of that before it was far too late. Anyway, I'm looking forward to Sarah Palin replacing Ann Coulter as the new right wing babe. I think Palin is both smarter (possibly 100 IQ) and better-looking than Coulter (milf vs. adams-apple).
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #1 on: 2008-11-07 16:33:25 » |
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Something I posted elsewhere which I think belongs here:
Quote:| Mo: I'm fairly convinced that Obama may be one of the sanest presidents we've had in my personal memory. I think his "No Drama Obama" reputation gives great latitude for reason to take hold in his decision-making. He doesn't strike me as a genius, but he seems like someone with the attitude and persistence such that he'll ask for help and eventually get around to the best answer more often than not. We don't need any more of this impulsive bravado and blustering cowboy crap that has passed for decisionmaking for far too long in this country. Its a relief to finally have an adult in charge. |
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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strongest supporting states.
« Reply #2 on: 2008-11-08 14:02:12 » |
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Walter mentioned in chat yesterday that Oklahoma, where he lives, is the heart of McCain country. More than any other state, Okies voted for John McNasty by 66%, followed closely by Wyoming at 65% for a total of 10EV. Washington DC went for Obama by 93%, followed by Hawaii at 72% and Vermont at 67% also for a total of 10EV.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Mo Enzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #3 on: 2008-11-10 13:29:03 » |
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The keeper of one of my favorite political polling information sites opined on the Obama win in light of some small recent news on the election. (Nebraska allows splits it electoral college vote.) For someone who has been watching the numbers closely from begining to end, I think he hits this nail on the head.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Suppose the "Nebraska Algorithm" Applied Everywhere
Quote:In case you missed it, Barack Obama picked up one electoral vote by winning NE-02. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their electoral votes by congressional district. Many people have asked: "What would have happened if all states used this rule?" To answer that question, one would need the popular vote for each congressional district, data that do not appear to be available at this time (but if you find them, send them over). As a proxy for the presidential vote per CD we can use the House vote. In other words, if a CD voted for a Democrat for the House, to a first approximation we can assume it voted for Obama, too. Currently we show 256 Democrats and 173 Republicans in the House, with six undecided races. Let's assume the six undecided races split evenly. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes and McCain 176. Obama won 28 states plus D.C., good for 58 electoral votes and McCain won 21 states, good for 42 electoral votes (they are still counting in Missouri). So using this model, Obama gets 317 electoral votes to McCain's 218.
Another way to estimate the vote per CD is to look at the PVI. Let's assume Obama won all the D+ CDs and McCain won all the R+ CDs. There are 200 D+ CDs and 235 R+ CDs. Using this formula Obama gets 258 electoral votes and McCain gets 277. Under the actual system, Obama outperformed both of these metrics. We know from other data that he won a large majority of the independents as well as quite a few Republicans disgusted with George Bush and John McCain for abandoning traditional Republican principles like balanced budgets and keeping the government out of people's private lives. Clearly Obama won because he not only held his base but made serious inroads in Republican CDs. |
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Mo Enzyme
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MoEnzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #4 on: 2008-11-10 13:38:55 » |
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Eight Ways Obama Can Make Change Immediately
http://www.alternet.org/election08/106306/?page=entire
By Allan Hunt Badiner, AlterNet. Posted November 10, 2008.
Quote:| A plan for less controversial and yet significant changes is possible right now. |
"Yes We Can" was sung to victory particularly by millions of young people, single women and black and brown people of all ages. These are the soldiers in Barack Obama's great army -- poised to prove that the election was just the first battle in a war of many. Just as the campaign itself was a threat to the status quo and the powerful interests that profit from it, so will be much of Obama's new agenda, and it will be up to all of us to make ourselves heard again and again.
Obama's victory is clearly historic, but does it really change the world? Yes and no. A dark cloud has finally passed, and there is a bright opening for a future to be possible. But for the immediate future there will still be troops in Iraq, there will still be an economic crisis, there will still be famine and conflict in Africa, and there will still be terrorist elements all over the world aiming their anger at the United States and the rest of the developed world.
Obama asked for our patience. "We may not get there in one year or one term," said Obama in his victory speech, "but I have never been more hopeful that we will get there." He called for a government by "yes you can" and asked for people to continue their historic campaign for change. The fact that we will now have a president who is willing to listen to the people does not diminish the need for the people to speak up forcefully.
But can Obama make meaningful change immediately? The power of the presidency is often exaggerated, particularly in the first year, and those less familiar with Washington politics are often oblivious to the real political constraints and limitations on strategies that every new president faces. It's not difficult to predict that a lot of people will be very disappointed with how long it takes for some crucial things to change.
But this time the need for change is so great, the dereliction of duty and corruption of values at the top of government so extensive for so long, that a plan for less controversial and yet significant changes can be immediately possible. Furthermore, the rout of Republican losses in the House and Senate will make this immediate agenda legislatively viable.
A list of changes on the fast track:
1. Creation of a massive green jobs initiative, mobilizing the unemployed to transform our energy landscape toward sustainability, providing incentives to volunteerism, and mobilizing a national effort (in the style of a Manhattan Project) to green all of our cities. An investment of $150 billion over 10 years should be made to support renewable energy and get 1 million plug-in electric cars on the road by 2015. Starting with green government procurement policies, a new powerful push will be made in the right direction. Imagine all new government purchases: fuel, vehicles, construction materials, supplies, etc., all strictly environmentally correct. Strategic tax and federal funding policies can promote energy efficiency incentives along with disincentives to pollute.
2. Respect for science, and renewed use of expert and diverse presidential commissions to encourage more realistic assessments and innovative ideas for solutions.
3. Renewed respect for international law, and a new series of accords and alliances with other nations for mutual security, cooperation on global climate action, and the establishment of a clear timetable for eliminating all nuclear weapons. A national commitment to reduce America's carbon emissions 80 percent by 2050 and to play a strong positive role in negotiating a binding global treaty to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol should be an immediate priority. If it isn't, it means Obama needs citizen action to help it along.
4. Priority on educational quality, incentives for creativity, and the end of test-driven instruction.
5. Investment in the NGO community, creating channels for NGOs to influence and inform the policy process, mandatory service for pre-college students and tax credits for community services.
6. Closing of the Guantanamo Bay detention center and developing a plan for a more educated, more ethical and better equipped military. Huge resources are spent on defense, some of those resources will be redirected to educate soldiers -- culturally, etc. -- and improve on the ways we try to win wars, i.e., feeding people rather than bombing them. De-politicizing military intelligence will help avoid repeating the kind of manipulation that led to the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
7. Launch a major diplomatic effort to stop the killings in Darfur. Open diplomatic talks with countries like Iran and Syria to pursue peaceful resolution of tensions. Only negotiate new trade agreements that contain labor and environmental protections.
8. Internet privacy, network neutrality and access to broadband for all.
Policy re-directions on the most critical and controversial issues will take some time, and the most crucial one is stopping the war in Iraq. In this case, Obama would undoubtedly welcome strong grassroots agitation for a faster schedule of bringing soldiers home, and not just shifting the war to Afghanistan. While it is clear that a military solution is not in the cards, the war economy has more power in the downturns, and much outdated thinking needs to be transformed. Obama will need all our help in order to keep his promise to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq within 16 months and keep no permanent bases in the country.
One would imagine that the melting financial system would necessitate large and sudden shifts in economic policy, but the resistance to regulation and to movement toward economic justice remains fierce. Fiscal discipline, more accountability, lower taxes on the middle class and higher taxes on the very rich will be a long-term project. Likewise, universal U.S. Senate-quality health care for all is going to take lengthy and intense negotiation with powerful interests. A fire needs to be kept at the feet of every representative in the halls of Congress and the White House for the right of Americans to have affordable, quality health care. And while the economic downturn may make it more difficult, the United States must accelerate the fight against HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria in Africa and Asia.
It is likely that Obama will soon pick at least two new justices on the Supreme Court, and women's right to make choices about their bodies will be preserved. Rumors are ripe that Hillary Clinton will be tapped for the bench, but in any event, the court will probably still stay fairly close to its current political balance. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court only hears fewer than 100 cases a year, and the federal and appellate courts are busy creating precedents and deciding the direction of American case law. In this area, Bush has dealt us a harsh blow. Many young judges have been appointed, and we will live with their judicial right-wing agenda for years to come. In time, Obama will mitigate the impact of this, too.
One immediate boost to our psycho-political sense of well-being will be Obama's invitation to experts of all persuasions to advise and inform the halls of power. Not only will the country be inspired by Obama's offer to work with Republicans and Independents closely, it will be thrilled to see him talk to people like Andrew Weil on the need to move toward integrative medicine and Warren Buffet on a smart federal investment policy, and the way the Obama administration will bring the nation's citizens to the table through vastly increased transparency and communication via the Internet.
America, ever more focused on itself, will be surprised and gladdened by the global outpouring of cheer and endorsement of our new internationally and instantly loved leader. America has redeemed itself for re-electing Bush, and is loved yet again for making a clear shift away from the misguided polices of its immediate past.
Most of all, America is loved for restoring long-overdue dignity to the non-white peoples of the world (the majority of humanity), and expressing in a most powerful way the truth of equality. In this way, all human beings on Earth will be immediate winners in the Obama drama. This is America's new and benign shock and awe. And this is just the beginning. The rest is up to us. Can we do it?
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #5 on: 2008-11-14 09:09:06 » |
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Three Senate Races Still Undecided
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov14.html
The Senate race in Minnesota between Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Democrat Al Franken (D) is currently frozen with Coleman 206 votes ahead. A recount will start after Nov. 19 at about 120 locations throughout the state. Each side will have a lawyer present at each location. Actually, given the nature of the activity to occur, it might have been better for each side to have a mathematician present, but such is life in modern America. If you are really into the nitty gritty details of recounts, check out this posting at Daily Kos. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/13/84113/162/386/646420
In Alaska, Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D) is currently 841 votes ahead of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), who if he wins would be the only convicted felon ever to be elected to the United States Senate. http://www.adn.com/elections/senate/story/587414.htmlHowever, there are about 25,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted, many from the Anchorage area, where Begich is well known. In addition, 15,000 provisional ballots are still uncounted. Typically half of all provisional ballots are rejected, but since they are more likely to come from low-income voters who don't have proper ID or people with transient housing, they tend to skew Democratic. All in all, this is the Democrats best shot at another Senate seat. If Stevens does somehow win, he will probably be expelled from the Senate, but in a special election, any Republican (and especially Sarah Palin) will be able to hold the seat.
The third undecided Senate seat is Georgia, where a runoff will take place on Dec. 2 between Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) and Jim Martin (D). Both sides are gearing up for a real battle, but turnout in runoffs is typically half of turnout in general elections and Democrats can win there only with massive turnout. Besides, Chambliss actually won the election; he just failed to make the 50% threshold due to the presence of a Libertarian candidate. Barring something very unexpected, Chambliss will be reelected.
Thus the final score seems to be one for the Democrats (Alaska), one for the Republicans (Georgia), and one true tossup (Minnesota). The conclusion is that the Democrats are likely to have 58 or 59 seats in the new Senate. More here. http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=B3E64C92560AAFBBD70DF8779B685631?diaryId=9915
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
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MoEnzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #6 on: 2008-11-14 09:19:00 » |
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Did Palin Do Her Job?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov14.html
Politico has an interesting piece on whether Sarah Palin accomplished what she was supposed to accomplish. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15577.html She was picked for basically three reasons: (1) to excite the base and drive up turnout, (2) to attract independent voters, and (3) to pull the disgruntled (PUMA) women away from the Democrats as a punishment for not nominating Hillary Clinton. How did she do? First, as to driving up core Republican turnout, she didn't. Core Republican turnout was 1.3% lower than what the embattled George Bush got in 2004. In fact, the reason Obama won Ohio was not that Democrats turned out in great numbers (Obama actually got fewer votes in Ohio than Kerry) but that Republicans stayed home in droves (300,000 fewer Republican votes than in 2004). Second, Palin didn't help much with independents; they went for Obama by 8% and in numerous polls many of them cited her specifically as their reason for voting for Obama. Probably the biggest disappointment was her lack of support among women; Obama won among women by 13%. The idea that Hillary Clinton's supporters would vote for any woman, even one who opposes everything Clinton stands for, proved completely false. Many people have written that just thinking this ploy would work is by itelf an insult to women's intelligence and quite sexist. Clearly it backfired.
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Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Obama's fundraising and Senate Margin
« Reply #7 on: 2008-12-05 18:57:19 » |
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These are two pieces from the Votemaster's December 5th report. I would like to take this opportunity to commend his short, well linked, and insightful summaries which I continue to rely heavily on to keep me up to date on US political/election issues.
Obama Raised $750 Million for his Election
Barack Obama broke all records as he raised nearly $750 million during his election campaign. By way of contrast, in 2004, the total amount raised by George Bush and John Kerry combined was $653 million, including the federal money. Towards the end of the general election campaign, Obama was outspending John McCain by 4 to 1.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec05.html
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_MONEY?SITE=CONGRA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Obama May Not Need 60 Votes in the Senate
Carl Leubsdorf has a piece on Real Clear Politics that echoes a point made here often: cloture votes rarely break down entirely along party lines. Leusbsdorf points out that on many bills, senators Snowe, Collins, Specter, and Voinovich among others may be willing to vote for cloture because they do not believe the country or the Republican Party are best served by being obstructionists all the time. Furthermore, some votes, such as one blocking health care for children, would prove very unpopular in their home states.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec05.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/12/60_or_not_dems_have_edge_they.html
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MoEnzyme
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Re:US post election thoughts
« Reply #8 on: 2008-12-27 00:51:55 » |
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For anyone still following US politics, we still have one senate seat to resolve in Minnesota. Its a long and winding road that will likely not end for a few more weeks of recount fights, but it seems that the betting crowd has made up their minds that its likely to be Al Franken. I've been following the news mostly via "Votemaster" at http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Today he made some excellent points about who is pushing the legal ball the most on this one (in otherwords who feels they have the most to lose from this recount).
Quote:Lawsuit All but Assured in Minnesota
Top lawyers for Norm Coleman's campaign have said that a lawsuit is virtually certain in the Minnesota Senate election. Reading between the lines, this suggests that they have de facto conceded defeat in the actual vote counting. If you were expecting to get more votes than the other guy, why would you even talk about filing a suit? There has been nary a word about lawsuits from the Franken camp, just a prediction that Franken will win by 35-50 votes. Coleman will have an uphill struggle because the Minnesota supreme court has denied every motion he has brought before it so far. It is clear the court does not want to settle the election. It wants the canvassing board to do so and it seems unlikely it will overturn the canvassing board's decision unless Coleman can show the board violated state law. In any event, no suit will be filed until the 1600 absentee ballots in dispute have been counted and that won't happen until January 5. So Minnesota will start the new session of Congress with one senator. There should have been some provision in the constitution that when a senate seat is vacant, the other senator gets two votes so the state is not disadvantaged, but there isn't. |
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec26.html
and yesterday he pointed to the intrade markets on this one:
Quote:| While Coleman's chances at this point are not zero, they are not great either. Here is what the bettors at www.intrade.com have thought of Coleman's chances to win over the past 60 days. If you think Coleman will win, here is your chance to make some big money fast. You can buy 1000 shares in Coleman-to-win for about $600. If he is elected, you get $10,000. |
http://www.intrade.com/
Today it was up to 9.7% for Norm Coleman winning which is hardly better than yesterday (6%) for people who are actually risking their own money on such predictions. Indeed I wonder if a few diehard GOP fanatics didn't take the votemaster seriously enough to tick the odds up however slightly.
So anyway, I thought I would take the opportunity to put in my prediction that this will be a Democratic seat giving the Dems a 59 to 41 vote margin in the Senate - only one seat shy of the magic number (60) to stop a fillibuster. Indeed as I've mentioned above, Obama doesn't really need 60 Democrats . . . all he needs is to convince any one senate republican on any vote to break the back of any fillibuster. So far Obama seems more than up to that kind of task. Even if it turns out to be Coleman, he's going to have his back against the wall with such a slim margin that he's always going to be gathering Democrats on his side for his 2014 re-election. In any case, I figured that before it becomes any more apparent I am throwing in my prediction with those betting on Franken winning this one.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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