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MoEnzyme
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I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« on: 2008-10-16 03:22:15 » |
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I base this on:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct15.html
a current poll-based state-by-state electoral calculator currently giving Obama a 357-181 current Electoral Vote lead over McCain, and I moderate the results with this:
http://www.intrade.com/
a popular futures market where the current betting line is Obama 364EV - 174EV McCain.
To be conservative, I'm giving McCain all the electoral votes for those states which vary between the two models, North Carolina, West Virginia, and North Dakota. To win the presidency Obama only needs 270, and with my most conservative 349EV estimate of these three totals Obama still has a very wide margin. California has the largest number of Electoral Votes -55- for comparison purposes. Of course CA is strongly in the Obama collumn in all remotely credible polling and futures markets, but if by some wacky turn of events, The Terminator manages to steal it for McSame, Mr. PTSD still needs to find more than twenty more EVs to pull even. Supposing I'm somehow a bit too exhuberant, which I doubt, I'm confident that barring a Palin-bot shooting him, Obama is still likely the next POTUS.
Anyone want to argue for a different ending?
The Intrade betting is post 3rd presidental debate, and the polling map is pre-debate. CNN (Anderson Cooper) is finally predicting it for Obama by 277, however their model leaves certain states as "toss-ups" thus leaving them out of the totals, where as all three of my models make predictions for all states and thus includes all Electoral Votes. Therefore CNN is BY FAR the most conservative estimate, . . . I think they do it that way so that they can present the race as close to not-yet-over for news/horseracing drama purposes. But regardless of that bias, they are now predicting a however slight Obama win, so I'm thinking any predictions of McCain POTUS are bordering on incredible. Of course I'll listen, just like I'd at least listen to bigfoot and chupacabra believers, . . . but seriously folks.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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Blunderov
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"We think in generalities, we live in details"
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #1 on: 2008-10-16 06:29:01 » |
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Quote from: MoEnzyme on 2008-10-16 03:22:15 Anyone want to argue for a different ending?
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[Blunderov] I've been saying for some while that America will not vote a black man into the White House. Fidel Castro agrees with me.
economictimes
Castro says it's a 'miracle' Obama hasn't been assassinated
12 Oct, 2008, 1807 hrs IST, AGENCIES
HAVANA: Former Cuban president Fidel Castro charged that American society was marked by "profound racism" and that it was a "pure miracle" that US presidential hopeful Barack Obama has not been assassinated.
"Profound racism exists in the United States," Castro wrote in a commentary that appeared on the website Cubadebate Saturday as he weighed in on the US presidential race ahead of the November 4 election.
"Millions of whites cannot reconcile in their minds with the idea that a black man with his wife and children would move into the White House, which is called just like that -- White," he wrote.
He added that it was a "pure miracle" the Illinois senator, who became the first black politician to win the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, had not been assassinated thus far.
The ailing Cuban communist leader, who handed power to his brother Raul earlier this year, described Obama as a politician who "has the habit of looking at his opponent with serenity and laughing at his rhetorical attacks."
Castro's comments came as a war of words with racial undertones marked the US White House race after civil rights icon John Lewis accused Republican candidate John McCain of sowing "hatred" against Obama, who is developing a commanding lead in opinion polls.
Castro also mocked McCain's poor grades at the naval academy and said Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin "knew nothing at all about anything."
[Bl.] It really ought to be a landslide for Obama. But in America anything can happen.
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MoEnzyme
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #2 on: 2008-10-16 08:08:01 » |
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Blunderov,
I agree with you that "anything can happen". Certainly the last two presidential elections were rigged in interesting ways. Of course in Florida in 2000 when the Jeb Bush GOP florida machine stole it from Gore. Unfortunately Gore was only prepared for a half-assed recount of only some of Florida's counties. Then in 2004 where even broader pro GOP anomolies happened in many more states. Kerry chose to fight it in Ohio, although as I recall there were several other states which were questionable and could have been contested if he had the juice to press every right.
However, it must be noted that at least a good part of the reason that the GOP rigging worked was because the elections were close to begin with. Gore clearly failed to carry his home state of Tennessee which I believe would have made him the first person to win the presidency without carrying his home state. Even if Kerry took Ohio, all the exit polling showed that more actual people voted for GWB than Kerry, so had he won Ohio he would have been along with GWB in an "elite" club of presidents who lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . . . I can't remember the other president, but I do seem to recall that he was forgetable and certainly not a superstar of US history.
This one doesn't look like it's going to be close. Plus Obama is steadily amassing more money than God (though not quite as much as Bill Gates;). I'm betting that at the end he saves some of that war chest to either - 1. if its close in the end then contest any and all questionable states completely, or 2. pay off Hillary's campaign debt (assuming Federal Election Commission rules permit . . . I think they do).
Personally I think its going to be hard to steal this one from Obama. This guy is prepared, he has built a fantastic nationwide political machine over the course of his campaign, and everyone knows what to look for now. Plus the Democratic party has developed and trained an army of lawyers . . . certainly something we seem to have no shortage of . . . to respond to voter suppression/fraud issues on election day. I should know about this personally  We really should have organized that before the 2000 election, but at that point in history I think many of us held somewhat more innocent notions of how elections are really conducted. Hindsight. In 2004 we were better organized and somewhat prepared, but still not quite up on the dangerous possibilities of Diebold hiding behind intellectual property rights to conceal the hackability of their paperless voting machines. Obama has done a lot to energize our organization, so I think its gonna be tough and ugly if anyone tries rigging this one.
Plus, if it seems like the election was stolen from Obama, I predict weeks nationwide rioting, which would probably unleash all that economic mayhem in the US you've waiting for . . . certainly a depression. The only other thing I can imagine - a hopped-up gun-nut after leaving a Palin rally assassinates Obama (per Castro). That would likewise and probably more surely and quickly lead to nationwide riots etc. Incidentally, if it happens that way, I think the world is still so wrapped up in the US economy that there will be plenty of tears abroad as well, possibly even in Cuba. Incidentally, neither McCain nor Palin have yet to chastize any of their followers even anonymously for calling for Obama's death. Apparently McCain has decided "we are going to be respectful", and it's off limits to call Obama an Arab, but it okay to call for his death. This has happened at least two or three times at Palin rallies now.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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Fritz
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #3 on: 2008-10-16 22:45:33 » |
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An added note of concern; is that Canada just reelected 'right wing christers' (aka Conservatives) and decimated the liberal party and reaffirmed the French based Separatist Party into parliament. (aka the Block).
It seems hard to believe Canada would turn right and USA would turn left, but after watching the debate and the clip where McCain called for his "fellow prisoners" to support him he does seem a long shot. A commentary from New York suggested that the McCain signs on front lawns were actually a reverse 'Bradley effect' and they would be voting Democrat.
Good luck to you all; I'm now continuing to practice touch my toes getting ready for the treatment. I have a bucket of vasoline and a pail of sand to add to the vasoline for a change of pace.
Cheers
Fritz
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Where there is the necessary technical skill to move mountains, there is no need for the faith that moves mountains -anon-
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Blunderov
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #4 on: 2008-10-25 15:49:44 » |
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[Blunderov]The GOP may have already thrown in the towel. It seems clear they are on a hiding to nothing.
http://existentialistcowboy.blogspot.com/
Friday, October 24, 2008
The GOP may concede the election
The GOP is already pulling the financial plug on the McCain campaign, cutting its losses, abandoning McCain, perhaps hoping to re-group for the 'future'. It's not only GOP honchos who seem inclined to cut their losses. The McCain campaign itself is 'pulling' ads in Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. McCain's campaign is in recession.
If these reports are true, it means that Obama's lead is substantial and widespread, perhaps beyond the ability of GOP hackers to 'steal' without tripping alarm bells. Some 'insiders' may have already concluded that Obama's lead is so well established that the election cannot be stolen 'safely'.
So far today, the polling numbers are grim reading for McCain’s campaign:
* Zogby has Obama at +12 points; 52-40
* Research 2000 has Obama up 51-41
* The stable Rasmussen poll has expanded to a seven-point Obama lead; 52-45
* Gallup has contracted a bit to a six-point Obama lead; 51-45
* Hotline/Diageo is at a five-point Obama lead; 48-43
* GWU/Battleground has moved from a one-point Obama lead two days ago to a four-point lead, 49-45, today, representing Obama’s strength at the end of its three-day polling cycle
Perhaps worse for McCain are some stunning results from Ohio, where McCain simply must win. Quinnipac gives Obama an astounding, 14-point, 52-38 Ohio lead and the University of Wisconsin puts the Obama lead there at 12 points, 53-41. The University of Wisconsin also shows Obama with a 10-point lead in Indiana, another state McCain must have, 51-41.
--Scholars and Rogues
With any luck, this election could represent a sea-change in American attitudes, many of which can be traced back to the immediate post WWII era, historically, the most egalitarian period in American history. Thanks to enlightened tax policies, the richest one percent most certainly did not own over 90 percent of all wealth --as is the case today. In fact, the US was at its most egalitarian throughout WWII and the post war era. Things did not change dramatically until the rise of Ronald Reagan and 'Reagonomics', the polite word given to the spreading of wealth upward to those already rich and elite.
The rise of Ronald Reagan brought with it a spreading of wealth upward to the upper classes and Wall Street insiders, in fact, an increasingly tiny elite of just one percent of the nation but own more than 90 percent of its wealth. The result is factually documented by the government's own agency. Income inequality measured by what economists call the GINI index.
Income inequality in the United States compared to other rich countries
Notice that the GINI index is highest in the United States, indicating that the growing disparities between the rich and poor are greater here than in any other country on the chart. This will prove to be the catalyst that creates a 'Third World America'.
McCain has abandoned the straight-talk express for the bullshit bandwagon that advocates the spreading of wealth upward to those who don't need it and will not reinvest it. We are talking about the richest one percent of the total population, that tiny elite that does not need nor does it deserve a tax cut of any sort. Worse than 'spreading wealth around', McCain wants to suck it up or flush it down a black hole from which it never, ever re-emerges.
McCain has abandoned his opposition to the Bush-era tax cuts and has taken up the demagogic call—in the midst of recession and Wall Street calamity, with looming crises in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—for more tax cuts. Bush’s expire in 2011. If McCain, as he has proposed, cuts taxes for corporations and estates, the benefits once more would go disproportionately to the wealthy.
--The Choice, The New Yorker
Sellouts by Mssrs Reagan, Bush and Bush, the US has now shares a most important economic barometer with third world nations --income inequality. The US, the most unequal, has caught the contagion best described in a recent UN report.
Halfway to the 2015 deadline for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) to lift people out of poverty, a United Nations MDG 2007 Report points to the widening economic disparities and underscores the need for political leaders to take urgent and concerted action. It projects that climate change will have serious and social impacts which will impede progress towards the MDGs.
The collective record is "mixed" in the "midpoint" report. While Asia has made dramatic progress in the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, halving the proportion of people living on the equivalent of a $ a day, there is evidence to suggest that benefits of economic growth are not being shared across different parts of the continent.
--Economic Disparities on the Rise: U.N. report, [PDF]
Not only wealth was transferred upward --spread around among the tiny elite of Bush kiss ups -- the incomes of the rich and famous increased exponentially during the administrations of Ronald Reagan/Bush Sr and again under George W. Bush who revived the corpse of 'supply economics' in order to pay off what he called his 'base', an increasingly rich and elitist one percent of the total population.
The divide between rich and poor was much less apparent before Reagan helped the nouveau riche move to absurd and pretentious suburbs. The 'Bedford Falls' of "It's a Wonderful Life" or the "Grover's Corner" of "Our Town" no longer exist. And it is a pity. The great paintings of Norman Rockwell seem to us to be relics of a simpler, better time.
The spreading of wealth upward to the GOP elite is achieved two ways.
Strategy of disguised redistribution of national resources from the bottom to the top is carried out by a combination of:
* drastic hikes in the Pentagon budget
* equally drastic tax cuts for the wealthy.
--COUNTERPUNCH
Before the Reagan/Bush/Bush [RBB] apocalypse, the US had viable industries. "General Motors' did not 'outsource' the making of cars; it actually made them in Detroit, better known now for the Lions. Manufacturing jobs paid well and American cars often competed with those made in Europe. The US made Corvette was a sensation. For a bit less money, an ambitious young man could drive a very cool, shiny red Mustang with a stick shift, hold down a part time job and still have enough money to go to college. Today --fuhgetaboutit!
Thanks to the Four Horsemen of GOP Apocalypse, going to college is strictly out of the question for millions who were born too late. Going to college with a car is out of the question for those who can afford neither. Millions are stuck in declining neighborhoods and increasing crime. It is against that reality that Pain-McCain poke fun at 'spreading the wealth around' even as they defend 'spreading it upward' to those who don't need it and don't deserve it and do nothing productive with it when they've gotten it EXCEPT to spread it around from various bank accounts, short-selling, speculative margin 'investment's and dubious ponzi schemes!
The rich are, in fact, parasites, leeches who live off the value that is always created by the act of doing real work. By the way, the Four Horsemen of the GOP apocalypse are unemployment, declining wages, recession, and a weak dollar!
The older citizens of Rome --under Augustus specifically --may have recalled with fondness a simpler time, before the assassination of Julius Caesar, a time in which Roman coins were still worth something, a time in which a craftsman could still make a living and yeoman farmers had not yet lost their little farms to Roman nobility and slick money changers.
Published Articles
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part I, Police States Begin With False Flag Attacks
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part II, A Climate of Fear is Maintained
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part III, In Fascist Dictatorships Telling the truth becomes a crime
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part IV, the state forces an 'existential' choice
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part V, Public Opinion Becomes Irrelevant
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part VI, The government places itself above the law
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State: Part VII, The Government Denies 'Due Process of Law'
* Bush's Conspiracy to Create an American Police State Part VIII: Atrocities are justified with lies, myths or propaganda
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MoEnzyme
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The McCain Candidacy is Over
« Reply #5 on: 2008-10-25 19:45:16 » |
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Yes, the margins seem to only widen for Obama
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct25.html
Now the electoral polling map has Obama projected at 375 electoral votes, far over the 270 threshold to win, giving Obama even odds in several traditionally GOP states like Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina, and a nearly insurmountable lead in most of the "battleground" states. This, by the way, is part of the reason I voted for Obama over Clinton. Of course I couldn't vote for anyone who supported or facilitated the invasion of Iraq, but at the end of the primaries Clinton was openly favoring a battleground approach. By that, I mean a general election campaign conducted almost entirely in the battleground states. Clinton of course favored this because she carried most of those battleground states in the primary. Obama on the other hand has always pushed for a 50-state strategy. If we had gone with Clinton, McCain would still be in the race . . . as it is, even his allies are begining to write the obituary on his campaign.
Speaking of obituarties, FOX news of all organizations that should support him, finally threw the towel in on McCain's campaign yesterday. It was a rather fast, one-day story revolving around Ashley Todd, who made up a story about a tall black man supporting Obama who brutally attacked, raped, and disfigured her all because she was a McCain supporter. Of course after numerous incidents of McCain/Palin supporters publicly calling for Obama's death, a simple race-baiting hoax shouldn't have been anything exciting. However . . . instead of letting law enforcement figure this out first, instead of calling on supporters to be calm and respectful until then, the McCain campaign in its most truly daring, rash, and desperate move to date aggressively pushed the story after the media buffoons at The Drudge Report latched on to it.
That prompted FOX news executive vice president John Moody to declare:
Quote:| If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting. |
http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/23/jmoody_1023/
He said some other patently ridiculous and intellectually insulting things to hedge his bets in case the story were true, but it is this prediction that sticks. If FOX News is betting that McCain is finished, I'm guessing he's finished. Drudge led the desperate to the gallows and FOX finished them off. Talk about getting stabbed in the back by your own media operatives! Apparently if Republicans act exceptionally stupid, even FOX will eventually take note of it -- ratings are still important to them after all.
P.S - while I'm in post-mortem analysis . . . The McCain campaign some months ago claimed that Obama "played the race card" when Obama described the kind of things that McCain would do before it was over - specifically that his race would become an issue. Of course anyone with a few neurons knew that McCain wasn't going to say, "don't vote for the n****r" and at the time it was a bit difficult to imagine him doing or saying anything worse than that. He certainly managed to surprise me . . . this race-baiting hoax is definitely worse and more than fulfills Obama's prediction.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #6 on: 2008-10-28 04:52:30 » |
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It now seems that we have a poll out of Arizona just yesterday that had Obama within 2% of McCain . . . in Arizona!!! I'm still sticking to my prediction of >/=349EV; but if McCain somehow loses his home state, then I think his political career will be effectively over.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/arizona.html
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #7 on: 2008-10-30 19:49:12 » |
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The McCain camp, completely out of new ideas, decides to play another game of "Six Degrees of Obama", only they forgot to check out their own six degrees of McCain first.
Quote:| McCain also has ties to Khalidi through a group Khalidi helped found 15 years ago. The Center for Palestine Research and Studies received at least $448,000 from an organization McCain chairs. |
full article:http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gpDdlB58oW01dngpTMqnHyiKMvIAD944O7LO1
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #8 on: 2008-11-05 10:16:43 » |
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http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama wins by at least 364 EV. Apparently they are still counting Missouri which may make it 375.
-Mo
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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MoEnzyme
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Re:I predict win for Obama >/= 349 EV
« Reply #9 on: 2008-11-14 09:00:06 » |
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http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov14.html
The State of Missouri
The election is mostly over, but not entirely. Let's review where we are. In Missouri. John McCain leads by 4986 votes out of almost 3 million cast. The absentee and provisional ballots are still being tallied, but it is unlikely that Barack Obama can turn this one around. State law requires a final count by Nov. 18. On the other hand, it is now definite that Obama picked up one electoral vote in NE-02, which will most like cause the Nebraska legislature to change the law and make the state winner-take-all in 2012 to deny Obama NE-02 agan. The final electoral vote score nationally will probably be 365 to 173.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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