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Topic: 'Loop Current' could make Gustav deadlier or "Here We Go Again" (Read 879 times) |
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Walter Watts
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'Loop Current' could make Gustav deadlier or "Here We Go Again"
« on: 2008-08-30 02:43:39 » |
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MSNBC.com
'Loop Current' could make Gustav deadlier
'I hope this thing doesn't really explode,' says expert after overflight
The Associated Press
updated 3:45 p.m. CT, Fri., Aug. 29, 2008
WASHINGTON - The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.
Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.
If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember.
The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.
Lynn "Nick" Shay, University of Miami meteorology and oceanography professor, flew over the gulf Thursday in a federal hurricane research plane to measure the Loop Current. He saw Gustav's forecast track going "right down the throat" of it.
'Scary' view
"That's kind of the scary part here," Shay said. "You look at this and say, 'Boy I hope this thing doesn't really explode,' but it probably will."
It happened in 2005. "Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly," said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.
Both Katrina and Rita later weakened — which often happens — to Category 3 storms by landfall.
In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.
Depth of warm water is crucial
What's crucial is the depth of warm water in the current — several hundred feet — because it provides continuous high-octane fuel for a storm. Hurricanes use the heat from the water to grow stronger and in the process they churn up cooler water from below, which then slows or stops the feeding process. But in the Loop Current, the deeper water is also warm and it further feeds the storm.
The Loop Current constantly shifts, growing and shrinking and sending out smaller eddies. It's now starting to contract, but not soon enough.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center warned that "Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern gulf coast."
The one hopeful sign is that on his hurricane flight Thursday, Shay saw a pool of extra cool water north and west of the Loop Current. That could help counteract what he fears will be rapid strengthening.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26459330/
MSN Privacy . Legal
© 2008 MSNBC.com
--Walter
Check out the link above for additional info.
Check out this link below for a nice "hurricane tracker" graphic:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/
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Walter Watts
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Fritz
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Re:'Loop Current' could make Gustav deadlier or "Here We Go Again"
« Reply #1 on: 2008-08-31 10:41:42 » |
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This is looking pretty grim. With active nasty weather for a good chunk of the US.
Fritz
Sat View
Source: NWS Weather Warnings
Author: Storm Prediction Centre
Date: 2008.08.31
000
WTUS84 KMOB 311401 CCA
HLSMOB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED NEXT UPDATE TIME
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AS
WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
ALZ052-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311600-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TI.W.0001.080901T1200Z-080902T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
CDT TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
WAYNE...PERRY...GREENE...STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM
TUESDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ON MONDAY.
MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW
HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL
CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS
MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL
WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST
NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME
ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL
SNAP.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
STARTING MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUSTAV BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 8
TO 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE CASE THAT RAIN BANDS
SET UP AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. THESE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1100 AM CDT.
$$
ALZ061>064-311600-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALABAMA COAST. HURRICANE
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. GUSTAV IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWEST...AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY. TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER OF GUSTAV...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
FOR 50 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FOR 200
MILES. SHOULD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD AFFECT COASTAL
ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG TIDAL FLOOD AREAS...AND ACROSS THE SPECIFIED
MARINE WATERS...USUALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. PERSONS SHOULD COMPLETE
THEIR PREPARATIONS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS THAT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO
SECURE PROPERTY...ESPECIALLY AT BEACH FRONT HOMES AND WITH BOATS.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST
EVACUATION INFORMATION.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
ON MONDAY. STARTING MONDAY MORNING...THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM TIDE
COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY FROM CEDAR
POINT WESTWARD ACROSS PORTERSVILLE BAY...CODEN AND BAYOU LA BATRE.
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY...TOTAL STORM TIDE FROM THE
FOWL RIVER AREA NORTH ACROSS THE THEODORE INDUSTRIAL CANAL...DOG
RIVER...TO THE ALABAMA STATE DOCKS AND PORT OF MOBILE COULD REACH 4
TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY
AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY...TOTAL STORM TIDE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET.
...WINDS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE ALABAMA COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHER HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUSTAV BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 8
TO 10 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE CASE THAT RAIN BANDS
SET UP AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. THESE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1100 AM CDT.
$$
GMZ630-650-670-311600-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY 3 STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWEST FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES...INCLUDING
MOBILE BAY.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION TODAY ALL
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS THAT ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE YOUR MARINE INTERESTS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AS LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO
AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
...WINDS...
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 25 TO 30 FEET. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST...MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1100 AM CDT.
$$
GMZ655-675-311600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HURRICANE GUSTAV...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF THIS MORNING...IS A CATEGORY 3 STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY. TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
FOR 200 MILES. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA OUT FOR 60 NAUTICAL
MILES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPARATIONS
TODAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE YOUR MARINE INTERESTS. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AS LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
...WINDS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY.
...TORNADOES...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1100 AM CDT.
$$
FLZ001>006-311600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST ON
MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FOR 200 MILES. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ALONG TIDAL FLOOD AREAS...AND ACROSS THE
SPECIFIED MARINE WATERS...USUALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PERSONS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPARATIONS
TODAY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE PROPERTY...ESPECIALLY AT BEACH
FRONT HOMES AND WITH BOATS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY. THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM TIDE COULD REACH
2 TO 4 FEET IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING PENSACOLA.
...WINDS...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
...TORNADOES...
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE BY 1100 AM CDT.
$$
GARMON/PURDY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 311346
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 31 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A SMALL...BUT CONCENTRATED...AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
WTUS82 KKEY 311336
HLSKEY
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
934 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM
THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS...
.AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 240 MILES WEST
OF KEY WEST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB OR 28.35 INCHES.
GMZ032-054-074-075-011345-
/O.CON.KKEY.TR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
934 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO INCLUDE CLOSURES AND NO POWER
OUTAGES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FORT ZACHARY...BAHIA HONDA AND DRY TORTUGAS PARKS ARE CLOSED UNTIL
ASSESSMENTS ARE COMPLETE. HOWEVER...BAHIA HONDA AND FORT ZACHARY
STATE PARKS WILL LIKELY REOPEN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO
POWER OUTAGES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE
LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IN THE
LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE
DRY TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
FLZ078-011345-
/O.CON.KKEY.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE LOWER KEYS-
934 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO INCLUDE CLOSURES AND NO POWER
OUTAGES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FORT ZACHARY...BAHIA HONDA AND DRY TORTUGAS PARKS ARE CLOSED UNTIL
ASSESSMENTS ARE COMPLETE. HOWEVER...BAHIA HONDA AND FORT ZACHARY
STATE PARKS WILL LIKELY REOPEN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO
POWER OUTAGES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE
LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IN THE
LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE
DRY TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
FLZ076-077-GMZ031-033-052-053-072-073-011345-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-FLORIDA BAY-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
934 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION TO INCLUDE CLOSURES AND NO POWER
OUTAGES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FORT ZACHARY...BAHIA HONDA AND DRY TORTUGAS PARKS ARE CLOSED UNTIL
ASSESSMENTS ARE COMPLETE. HOWEVER...BAHIA HONDA AND FORT ZACHARY
STATE PARKS WILL LIKELY REOPEN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO
POWER OUTAGES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE
LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IN THE
LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE
DRY TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
APA
000
WTUS82 KKEY 311255
HLSKEY
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM
THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS...
.AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 240 MILES WEST
OF KEY WEST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB OR 28.35 INCHES.
GMZ032-054-074-075-011300-
/O.CON.KKEY.TR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION FOR 8 AM ADVISORY.
REMOVED TORNADO SECTION.
OUTDATED PREPAREDNESS TO REMOVE SHELTER AND EVACUATION INFORMATION.
UPDATED MARINE INFORMATION TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT IN THE LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE DRY
TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
FLZ078-011300-
/O.CON.KKEY.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE LOWER KEYS-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION FOR 8 AM ADVISORY.
REMOVED TORNADO SECTION.
OUTDATED PREPAREDNESS TO REMOVE SHELTER AND EVACUATION INFORMATION.
UPDATED MARINE INFORMATION TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT IN THE LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE DRY
TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
FLZ076-077-GMZ031-033-052-053-072-073-011300-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-FLORIDA BAY-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
855 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION FOR 8 AM ADVISORY.
REMOVED TORNADO SECTION.
OUTDATED PREPAREDNESS TO REMOVE SHELTER AND EVACUATION INFORMATION.
UPDATED MARINE INFORMATION TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IS OPEN...BUT DRIVERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION IF THEY NEED TO TRAVEL IN THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT IN THE LOWER KEYS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO THE WEST OF THOSE ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. VERY MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE IN
PARTICULARLY LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES FOR THIS MORNING...
AT GARDEN KEY IN THE DRY TORTUGAS...11:28 AM.
AT KEY WEST HARBOR...10:59 AM.
AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON...9:48 AM.
...WINDS...
FREQUENT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 45 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND THE DRY
TORTUGAS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATER THIS MORNING
AS GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER ATLANTIC WATERS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. ON WATERS WEST OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS WEST OF KEY WEST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
BEYOND THE REEF OF 10 AND 15 FEET WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WELL
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS IN A FEW RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...AS
GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON...OR SOONER IF NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
$$
APA
000
WTUS84 KLCH 311255
HLSLCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...GUSTAV EDGING CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE...
.AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT
490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK... GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT
GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
GMZ450-470-311615-
/O.CON.KLCH.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HURRICANE WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 15 FEET BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...WILL SPREAD OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM.
$$
TXZ215-311615-
/O.CON.KLCH.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
JEFFERSON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HURRICANE WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
JEFFERSON COUNTY.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER
THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 130 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 160 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
MAINLY IN GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE SABINE PASS
AND PORT ARTHUR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM...40 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...5 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM.
$$
GMZ452-455-472-475-311615-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO ATCHAFALAYA
BAY...BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM.
$$
LAZ051>054-311615-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON...VERMILION
AND IBERIA PARISHES.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
CAMERON PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
IBERIA PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
ST. MARY PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
VERMILION PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 8
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA AND
ST. MARY PARISHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO
20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THESE LEVELS...ALL OF ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED
WITH STORM SURGE...WITH IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED EXCEPT THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PARISH WEST OF NEW IBERIA ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 90 AND LA 182. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE
SCENARIO.
VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER
EAST ACROSS ST. MARY PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON
PARISHES ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH AT A CATEGORY FOUR...A STORM SURGE OF 15 TO
20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THESE LEVELS...MOST OF VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED
WITH STORM SURGE PAST LA 14 AND UP TO LA 82. THESE LEVELS WOULD
LIKELY SURPASS HURRICANE RITA`S STORM SURGE VALUES. AGAIN...THIS
IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 130 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 160 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES BY NOON TIME MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY AREA
JUST AFTER NOON MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AREA BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING MONDAY.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS
MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS
WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS
WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND
PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND/OR UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
MORGAN CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...79 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...26 PERCENT.
NEW IBERIA.
TROPICAL STORM...74 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...22 PERCENT.
INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...68 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...20 PERCENT.
CAMERON.
TROPICAL STORM...50 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...9 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 AM.
$$
LAZ055-311615-
/O.CON.KLCH.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080901T2100Z/
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
755 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
MONDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:
LOWER ST. MARTIN.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:
HURRICANE WIND WARNING.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MAKING PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISH.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 130 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 160 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AS
GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES BY NOON TIME MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY AREA
JUST AFTER NOON MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AREA BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS VERMILION AND CAMERON PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING MONDAY.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EYE WALL OF A
HURRICANE OF THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED
OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF
AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS
MAY OCCUR. MANY INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS
WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED APARTMENTS
WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS
LIKELY. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND
PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED
AND/OR UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
STEPHENSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...79 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...25 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOE
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Where there is the necessary technical skill to move mountains, there is no need for the faith that moves mountains -anon-
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Blunderov
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"We think in generalities, we live in details"
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Re:'Loop Current' could make Gustav deadlier or "Here We Go Again"
« Reply #2 on: 2008-09-01 00:30:56 » |
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Quote from: Fritz on 2008-08-31 10:41:42
This is looking pretty grim...
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[Blunderov] Indeed. Could it be the decision not to rebuild New Orleans will be vindicated? Gustav seems headed in that direction.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/01/cngustav101.xml
Hurricane Gustav losses on scale of Katrina
By Yvette Essen
Last Updated: 1:01am BST 01/09/2008
Insurers are bracing themselves for the biggest storm losses in years as Hurricane Gustav caused 96pc of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut off.
The price of oil could rise sharply in trading today after oil workers were taken to safety from their rigs.
advertisementJim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist for weather intelligence company Planalytics.com, said: "This storm will prove to be a worst-case scenario for the production region. This storm will be more dangerous than Katrina."
Fears mounted last night that Gustav could intensify to become a Category Five hurricane - the highest classification of storm with wind speeds of 155mph or more - as it nears the coast.
The last time a hurricane of this intensity made landfall in the Gulf was in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina become the most costly hurricane since records began, causing around $40bn (£22bn) of insured losses.
Neena Saith, catastrophe response manager at Risk Management Solutions, said Gustav was expected to hit oil platforms over the next few days.
"The last time we had this level of disruption was in 2005," she said. "Gustav weakened to a Category 3 hurricane in Cuba but it will most likely be a Category 4 strength and possibly even Category 5."
Gustav has left behind a trail of devastation in the past few days, claiming at least 81 lives as it struck Cuba and tore across the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.
Katrina caused $7bn of insured losses in today's values to offshore platforms in 2005. Ms Saith said Gustav could be on a similar scale.
New Orleans under curfew
"We expect the damage could cause losses in the range of $2bn to $7bn to the off-shore platforms. It is almost inevitable it will cause damage from the very strong winds but also from the wave action triggered by the winds."
Evacuation of New Orleans began yesterday morning, with residents on the city's vulnerable West Bank the first to be told to start leaving.
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