Bass
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The Bear and the West
« on: 2007-07-21 22:24:02 » |
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I thought this was relevant, what with the US-Russia row over the planned missile defence radar, and the whole UK-Russia Lugovoi/Litvinenko/Berezosky thing.
So, firstly, do you think that the hails of a 'new Cold War' hold any water?
I don't, not at all. Things are just too different now. Russia doesn't need military power - it has energy power, which is what we need to be wary of, if anything. Russia's rebuilding its economy, and we have the money to enable it to do that if it continues to sell. Of course, there's always the chance of Gazprom becoming a very, very big political arm...
And I'd like to think that people are still afraid without being afraid of nuclear weapons. Use them and it's the end...would anyone really do that?
Then we come to the US making plans for missile defence bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. Comments?
I know that the Russians presented Azerbaijan as an alternative site, but I also heard a former KGB agent saying that, 'That's an Old Russia tactic. Present the enemy with an option that isn't viable and then make them out as the bad guys when they refuse it.'
Though there's also the question of the relevance of the defence bases...would they actually be able to stop an ICBM? And why would North Korea be launching ICBMs West when the distance to the USA is far reduced if they go East instead?
Is it just political warmongering, or something bigger? I doubt that America would try to deilberatly destabilise that area. So they must see some threat...but from where? Russia, or Iran?
And now we come to the Alexander Litvinenko affair, and the idiocy of the British Foreign Office.
Let's welcome David Miliband to the table, aged 41. Looks friendly enough. But then refuses the Russian offer to hold trials of the prime suspect for Litvinenko's murder, Andre Lugovoi, and then expels four Russian diplomats when Russia refuses to bend its own extradition laws. There's also the issue of the UK having refused extradition of six Russian defectors from London.
The UK seems to feel that the trial won't be conducted properly in Russia. They're protecting people who Putin calls criminals (such as Boris Berezovsky, the billionaire) and who call themselves people who're being targeted for speaking out against the Russian 'regime.'
So, either Putin's lying or they are. Miliband chose Putin. (At least it's not stil Beckett who's in charge, she'd have missed the whole show.)
And then Russia kicked out four diplomats. On the same day that Putin said the two nations could 'easily overcome' the 'mini-crisis', Tornadoes from RAF bases in Scotland and two Norwegian F-16s were scrambled to intercept Russian Tupolov aircraft (can be used for surveillance, cruise missiles, or nuclear deployment) flying around the edges of and within British airspace, having taken off from a Russian base in the Artic circle. It is extremely rare for this to happen three times in one week, never mind twice on the same day. Russia said the planes were 'training', and in their defence, the Tupolovs turned away without a word. It just seems odd.
So, then. Is this the West and Russia squaring up to one another, a 'new Cold War', or are have we just been caught in a string of unfortunate and coincidental diplomatic exchanges?
Regards
Bass
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