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Topic: Just how big is Obama's lead? (Read 863 times) |
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Walter Watts
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Just how big is Obama's lead?
« on: 2008-07-30 21:26:48 » |
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From some blog named "Incertus".
http://incertus.blogspot.com/
ref: date: 7/30/08
Just how big is Obama's lead?
In a desperate attempt to keep this race from looking like the blowout it currently is, reporters and other media types have been asking why Obama's lead isn't bigger than it is. After all, they say, everything favors him--the economic climate, the public's stance on the war, George W. Bush's favorability ratings, and so on. He ought to be blowing McCain out of the water.
Well, he is, even using the polling models that are, in some part, based on guesswork. I mean, how do you poll a national contest when there's a candidate like Obama in the race? He's a first--how will that affect turnout? Will he draw new voters to the polls? Will there be a backlash? Who knows?
But even based on that, Obama holds a massive lead. CNN's poll of polls currently has Obama up by five points. That doesn't sound like a lot, but look at it in terms of vote totals, and it gets huge. By way of comparison, in 2004, just over 120 million people voted for President. Even if we assume that turnout is flat for 2008 (and there's no reason to expect that), a five-point lead translates to roughly 6 million votes. No one would look at a 6 million vote win and call it close, but five points makes it seem like it's within reach.
How about historically? In 2004, George W. Bush won by about half that margin in raw votes, and while it didn't reach the mandate levels he claimed, it was a decisive win. But in 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by over 8 million votes, by over 8 percentage points in a three-way race, and that was a resounding win for him. Obama's lead falls in the middle of that right now, which isn't half bad, considering, as One Drop does, that Obama is "a biracial Democrat with a Muslim-sounding name" running against a "white male Republican war veteran."
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Walter Watts
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MoEnzyme
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Re:Just how big is Obama's lead?
« Reply #1 on: 2008-07-30 22:27:10 » |
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Several things I've noted on polls re: Obama.
Its seems that the thing that changes most from one poll to the next is McCain's numbers, sometimes up, sometimes down. Obama's numbers seem to remain fairly steady. It seems that people who poll in favor of Obama are more loyal than those who poll in favor of McCain. When the whole ballot including third party candidates is in play, McCain's numbers drop precipitously while Obama's remain steady.
If this is true, McCain's recent strategy of going negative himself instead of leaving it up to surrogates is very wrong headed. Even if he succeeds in driving down Obama's support at all (which he hasn't) it's a high likelihood that they won't be voting for him, and he may lose what few loyal voters he has himself to the third party peanut gallery. Another noted trend is that polls which include cell phones in addition to land lines give Obama about 4 to 5 more percentage points.
Finally, I've noted is that although Obama gets more coverage than McCain, every story about him seems to include a fair amount of critical commentary by the anchors and guests. It almost seems that the media are going out of their way to demonstrate that they are critical of Obama even as they give him more coverage. I have yet to encounter any Cable TV commentary of Obama, even "friendly" ones that don't include at least mild criticism of him.
While I think this dispells the myth that Obama is favored by the media, I don't think it really hurts Obama either. To withstand this kind of criticism over time is itself a strong point for Obama which worked for him in the primaries, and I think is likely to help in the general election too. No matter the adversity, he always finds a way to return to his positive and optimistic messages in the end.
The last thing I'd like to point out is that this meme of Obama is a messiah is completely a right wing concoction. Among many reasons I like Obama, is that the word "Reverend" is not among his titles. He has NEVER held himself out as a a religious figure of ANY kind, other than self-identifying as a Christian. He simply offers a political agenda of hope.
Indeed his atheist mother in his family background gives me some extra hope that Obama won't try pulling as much a religious con job as many other politicians. I've appreciated how easily he includes non-believers in his rhetorical vision of an otherwise-religious and religiously diverse America. Even though I expect Obama like any other successful politician will give me a load of bullshit worth criticizing before its all over with, he already seems somewhat less full of it than anybody else on the current US political stage.
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Mo Enzyme
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MoEnzyme
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Re:Just how big is Obama's lead?
« Reply #2 on: 2008-07-30 23:08:16 » |
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ps to the previous: I already don't like Obama's support of continuing government funded faith based programs. I already am disappointed in his AIPAC roll-over. Maybe he will become more of a J-Street guy in practice. Some of the criticism he is recieving on things like these are very well deserved. And yet I still feel "safer" with Obama, than anything I'm seeing in McCain, . . . and that is the only real choice anyway. While I don't mind seeing 3rd parties sucking down McCain's precious "independents", the only rational choice in such a rigged contest is the lesser of two evils. Democracy CAN be better than this, which should give some voice for reform, but until we abolish the electoral college, it's what we've got - spoilers and all.
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I will fight your gods for food,
Mo Enzyme
(consolidation of handles: Jake Sapiens; memelab; logicnazi; Loki; Every1Hz; and Shadow)
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Walter Watts
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Re:Just how big is Obama's lead?
« Reply #3 on: 2008-07-30 23:49:13 » |
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Quote from: MoEnzyme on 2008-07-30 22:27:10
<snip>
Finally, I've noted is that although Obama gets more coverage than McCain, every story about him seems to include a fair amount of critical commentary by the anchors and guests. It almost seems that the media are going out of their way to demonstrate that they are critical of Obama even as they give him more coverage. I have yet to encounter any Cable TV commentary of Obama, even "friendly" ones that don't include at least mild criticism of him.
<snip>
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I have noticed the exact same thing dude.
If this don't qualify as a gawd-durn conspeeeeerucy, I don't know what will brother Mo!
Walter
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Walter Watts
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Fritz
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Re:Just how big is Obama's lead?
« Reply #4 on: 2008-07-31 12:34:11 » |
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Quote from: Walter Watts on 2008-07-30 23:49:13
Quote from: MoEnzyme on 2008-07-30 22:27:10
<snip>
Finally, I've noted is that although Obama gets more coverage than McCain, every story about him seems to include a fair amount of critical commentary by the anchors and guests. It almost seems that the media are going out of their way to demonstrate that they are critical of Obama even as they give him more coverage. I have yet to encounter any Cable TV commentary of Obama, even "friendly" ones that don't include at least mild criticism of him.
<snip>
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I have noticed the exact same thing dude.
If this don't qualify as a gawd-durn conspeeeeerucy, I don't know what will brother Mo!
Walter
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[Fritz]Bob and Tom (radio show) this morning pointed out that Mrs Clinton would be the best running mate for Obama as a life insurance policy since no self respecting right wing crazy would dare kill Obama if Hilliary would end up being president. 
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Where there is the necessary technical skill to move mountains, there is no need for the faith that moves mountains -anon-
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