David Lucifer
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virus: probability
« on: 2004-01-18 22:16:04 » |
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I have a new (for me at least) conception of probability that
I wanted to bounce off this crowd:
Probability is the fraction of possible futures that contain an event.
Do you think this is right or wrong? If it is right, do you think
it is obvious (you already thought of it that way) or enlightening
(in that it makes it more clear or otherwise sheds light on the concept)?
Lucifer
p.s. I just checked and googling for "fraction of possible futures"
turned up zero hits so maybe I'm onto something new here.
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Lise Carlstrom
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Re:virus: probability
« Reply #1 on: 2004-01-18 22:36:36 » |
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I am concerned that this formulation could encourage a common misunderstanding of probability. Here is an example of what I mean, drawn from a real person's claim I once encountered. I might be hit by car when I next cross the street. There are two options: I will be hit, and I won't be hit. Counting these as two possible futures can easily lead to the conclusion that there is a fifty percent chance of my being hit by a car next time I cross the street, which I dearly hope is not the case! Do you see a way to improve your formulation so that this misunderstanding is not encouraged?
--Eva
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Mermaid
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Re:virus: probability
« Reply #2 on: 2004-01-19 22:22:22 » |
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[Lucifer]Probability is the fraction of possible futures that contain an event.
[Mermaid]That would be a possibility, no? Probability would include many assumptions with the premise and hence more possible futures. Possibility is the fraction of possible futures given a certain fixed assumption re the environment in which the event takes place.
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David Lucifer
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Re:virus: probability
« Reply #3 on: 2004-01-19 22:26:57 » |
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[Eva]
I am concerned that this formulation could encourage a common misunderstanding of probability. Here is an example of what I mean, drawn from a real person's claim I once encountered. I might be hit by car when I next cross the street. There are two options: I will be hit, and I won't be hit. Counting these as two possible futures can easily lead to the conclusion that there is a fifty percent chance of my being hit by a car next time I cross the street, which I dearly hope is not the case! Do you see a way to improve your formulation so that this misunderstanding is not encouraged?
[Lucifer]
Hmm, I hadn't considered that. One possible refinement would be:
Probability is the fraction of possible quantum futures that contain an event.
By "quantum futures" I'm referring to Hugh Everett's many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics which can be read about here>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_many-worlds_interpretation
I'm not sure we need to invoke the maximum number of possible futures, but I suppose it can't hurt if we're trying to be rigorous here.
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Ophis
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Re:virus: probability
« Reply #5 on: 2004-01-20 16:48:18 » |
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Here are other common definitions of probability (from my statistics book):
Classical definition 1: the relative number of time that an event will occur as the
number of experiments becomes very large.
Classical definition 2: the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of all possible outcomes
Classical definition 3: a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur
Bayesian definition: probability expresses the degree of belief a person has about an event or statement.
Lucifer's definition seems equally valid to me but I wonder if there is a particular advantage in casting the definition of probability in a more "quantic" perspective using "possible futures" instead of "possible outcomes" or "number of experiments"?
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Walter Watts
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Re: virus: probability
« Reply #6 on: 2004-01-20 18:01:43 » |
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"History arises when the space of possibilities is too large by far for the actual to exhaust the possible."
-Stuart Kauffman, "At Home in the Universe"
Mermaid wrote:
> [Lucifer]Probability is the fraction of possible futures that contain an event.
>
> [Mermaid]That would be a possibility, no? Probability would include many assumptions with the premise and hence more possible futures. Possibility is the fraction of possible futures given a certain fixed assumption re the environment in which the event takes place.
>
> ----
> This message was posted by Mermaid to the Virus 2004 board on Church of Virus BBS.
> <http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs/index.php?board=61;action=display;threadid=29857>
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Walter Watts
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simul
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Re: virus: probability
« Reply #7 on: 2004-01-21 10:38:47 » |
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I don't thing futures are so easily enumerable. Possiblity theory must include a 6-sided die landing on the corner, or never landing at all.
Our brains are possibility engines as well as probability engines.
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First, read Bruce Sterling's "Distraction", and then read http://electionmethods.org.
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