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The Bill Gates Exit Strategy BS
« on: 2008-01-09 23:02:07 » |
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The Bill Gates Exit Strategy BS
ARTICLE DATE: 01.07.08
By John C. Dvorak
This week, every media outlet has an article about Bill Gates with the words "Swan Song" in the title. Apparently these people actually think there is a swan song taking place, as Bill once again announces his final retirement from Microsoft. When I started to see these articles, I said to myself, "Exactly how many times is this guy quitting?" He's turning into the Cher of high tech, with never-ending serial retirements. All that is missing are the final-tour T-shirts.
The idea that Bill Gates is going to run that foundation of his full-time is a joke. First of all, he doesn't have to lift a finger for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It was created carefully and could run itself if Bill never showed up. Everyone knows that. And Melinda could run it just fine without him, thank you.
Bill does provide the important figurehead and strategist, and surely his focus and basic ability to cut through crap is valuable. But not that valuable. It's a charity, for gosh sake. Why would a business icon have to do much more than sit in on a few meetings and carp at the management?
That's not what this is all about. I, for one, am not buying any of it. And I actually think I know what Bill is up to: It should be interesting, since his possible plan is not trivial, if it's going to work.
Let me explain.
Bill would like to extract himself completely from Microsoft, so he can let the company drift. If Ballmer quits, and they don't promote from within by letting Jeff Raikes or some other trained clone of Gates take over, then the company is doomed to follow the path we've already witnessed with Apple.
Apple was taken over by Scully, then by a series of professional managers who could not keep Apple on a steady course. One CEO reportedly would crawl under his desk and cry like a baby. It wouldn't take much for Microsoft to take this route to doom.
Then, according to plan, Gates would have no choice but to return to save the company. And while there is no originality here, if he could do this, it would be spectacular. It would even top the Steve Jobs "Return of the Prodigal Son" act, since Microsoft is enormous compared to the early-era Apple.
And of course, that is probably why the scheme has little chance of success. Ted Waitt tried to pull the same act with Gateway and failed miserably. Now Gateway is owned by a Taiwanese company. The shame!
So why do I think this scheme is afoot? One name: Bill Gates.
Gates is a unique character in American business history, and he's marked by two distinct characteristics: incredible focus and a ridiculously competitive nature that is incomparable. The second aspect of his personality cannot go away without large doses of Paxil or Prozac or something. That's why, in my opinion, the likelihood of his quitting the scene to go into charity work is just plain ridiculous. And, yes, it's great that he's giving money away. Woot!
There are lots of examples of Gates's obsessive competitiveness. I could give you a laundry list. I mean, here's a guy who had to be shown how to throw a baseball at a Mariners game. Then he takes up golf, because his wife would otherwise beat him and his dad thinks Bill is a joke on the course. He throws himself into the game with professional coaching and practice and becomes a credible player due to sheer willpower. He would beat most of you.
Most guys, athletic or not, would have simply said, "Screw golf."
The point is, Bill Gates does not walk away from a challenge. And it must gall him that Steve Jobs is getting all the accolades.
But Bill is at a dead end at Microsoft. Thus, he takes a page from historian Arnold Toynbee and decides to pull off a classic "withdraw and return" gambit, which could result in great success. Napoleon and Jobs both did it, not that I should be comparing the two (well, maybe).
Gates always seems to be in his element when he's crushing Borland or kicking Sun or smashing Netscape. At his best, he's the nerd from hell. So now, after all that, he drifts into becoming the namby-pamby head of a charity, dealing with people begging for money? Are you kidding me? I don't think so.
Hey Bill, you're not fooling me.
Copyright (c) 2008Ziff Davis Media Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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