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Where's the fire?
 
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The inexorable increase in human lifespan.
« on: 2003-11-12 22:16:26 » |
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November 11, 2003
By GINA KOLATA
"There is no fixed life span," says Dr. James Vaupel, no
wall of death dictated by basic biology that we are edging
toward. People are living longer and longer, he said, and
he sees no reason to think the trend will slow or stop in
the foreseeable future.
He should know.
Dr. Vaupel is the director of the laboratory of survival
and longevity at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic
Research in Rostock, Germany.
He cites some statistics: "From 1840 until today, the life
expectancy in the countries that are doing the best has
increased two and a half years per decade. It's linear,
absolutely linear, with no evidence of any decline or
tapering off. Why can't it continue to go up?"
If there were a fixed limit to human life spans and we were
approaching it, he says, then the countries whose
populations live the longest should be having more and more
trouble making progress.
"Not true at all," he says. "For the past 20 years, Japan
has been the leader, and every year the Japanese life
expectancy goes up by a quarter of a year. There is no
evidence that it is slowing." Japanese women, he adds, now
have a life expectancy of 85.23 years.
"And do we notice that death rates at age 80, 90, 100 are
bottoming out? No, they're not," Dr. Vaupel says. "Death
rates at those ages are coming down faster and faster. The
death rates at age 80 are coming down about 2 percent a
year in most countries."
But there has to be a limit, right?
"Why?" Dr. Vaupel
replies. While small but consistent increases in the
average life span are not going to lead to immortality, he
says, there is no reason to assume that we know where
progress will stop.
"There is no reason that life expectancy can't continue to
go up two to three years per decade," Dr. Vaupel said.
"Biomedical progress is really very impressive. We are
beginning to understand cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer's
disease. In animal models, we are beginning to understand
how to slow aging itself."
Dr. Vaupel predicts that by midcentury, some countries may
have life expectancies approaching 100 and says other
researchers who share his views predict that life
expectancies might approach 130 by 2050.
"I'm not an optimist," Dr. Vaupel said. "I'm middle of the
road."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/11/science/11SPAN.html?ex=1069671975&ei=1&en=1ef668c3215dc00e
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