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Topic: Your thirty years are up, NASA (Read 1333 times) |
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Ophis
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Your thirty years are up, NASA
« on: 2003-10-21 12:40:19 » |
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http://www.webleyweb.com/tle/tle243-20031019-02.html
I came across this interesting article by sci-fi author L. Neil Smith today. He talks about his broken hopes of one day going to space and how to re-kindle these hopes for the next generations.
I'm sure many Virians will associate with Smith's position on how governments have failed to deliver the "space" promises.
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metahuman
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #1 on: 2003-11-21 03:33:53 » |
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Sci-fi author turned organizer?
L. Ron Hubbard was one and the Church of Scientology--which was designed specifically to gain huge profits--was the result. I hope L. Neil Smith creates an "out-of-this-world" organization, however, I also hope it isn't anything like the CoS.
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metahuman
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #2 on: 2003-11-21 14:16:46 » |
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[Response by e-mail]
He's absolutely correct about the US government never allowing ordinary people into space.
What he didn't say is how the CAPITALIST U.S. fought tooth and nail to prevent the very recently COMMUNIST Russians from orbiting a self-made capitalist American millionaire for a fee - what must be the ultimate capitalist endeavor. NASA could pick up $100M/year doing that but they, being the government space flight monopoly, would rather soak the gullible American taxpayers. "All monopolies are bad - no matter how they came to be monopolies".
The US is always telling the world about how capitalism is good for them but this is just another case of "do as I say not as I do".
The opening paragraphs of this article reminded me of why I've been in favor of dumping NASA ever since the late 1980s.
A similar government "do as I say not as I do" line is in the political arena. Note how many dictators the US government has put into power around the world over the past century. The recent Iraq activity is only the most recent example (dictator Saddam was put into power by the US and Britain but got "too big for his britches" and started to get more "friendly" with democracies France and Germany than with the people who put him there so they had to get rid of him).
But, note how much easier it was for the US to get the dictator of Kuwait (locally called the "emir") to approve the use of his property (i.e.,
country) for invading Iraq than it was to get the parliamentary democracy of Turkey to approve.
Democracies are messy, with everyone being a special interest and wanting their own way. Democracies, like Turkey, France, Germany, etc., might vote no whereas dictators can be bought off pretty cheaply to say yes.
So whenever they can, democracies (all democracies, not just the US) do their best to establish dictatorships in other countries. This is why the whole world is not governed by democratic countries.
There's a strange feedback mechanism due to this "democracies prefer other countries to be dictatorships" phenomenon. Any bets on what the US government REALLY wants as a form of government in Iraq? Any bets how Iraq will turn out? I'd put my money on a "friendly" dictator. Of course, democracies France and Germany would prefer to have "their" friendly dictator in power rather than our "friendly" dictator.
As far as the "plan" in the 2nd part of this article goes - I'll believe it when I see it. Government agencies are like a monster in a Sci-Fi movie - they can be created but not destroyed. And just when you think you have them on the ropes they morph into a new entity, like Dracula into a bat.
It may be possible to get rid of the name "NASA" but I'm very much afraid we're stuck with the agency.
The best hope for all of us who, in our youth (and still today), wanted to see ordinary people walk the surface of Mars is the Chinese, unless they too fall under the spell of NASA money.
[Source: Unattributed for security reasons.]
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Ophis
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #3 on: 2003-11-21 15:36:13 » |
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Quote:metahuman:
What he didn't say is how the CAPITALIST U.S. fought tooth and nail to prevent the very recently COMMUNIST Russians from orbiting a self-made capitalist American millionaire for a fee - what must be the ultimate capitalist endeavor. NASA could pick up $100M/year doing that but they, being the government space flight monopoly, would rather soak the gullible American taxpayers. "All monopolies are bad - no matter how they came to be monopolies". |
I agree, and the fact is that capitalism and statism are simply incompatible. A state-owned society (like NASA) cannot be expected to behave according to capitalist principles, regardless of the nature of the political structure that funds its operations (be it democratic or totalitarian).
Quote:| Democracies are messy, with everyone being a special interest and wanting their own way. Democracies, like Turkey, France, Germany, etc., might vote no whereas dictators can be bought off pretty cheaply to say yes. |
Most people I talk to tend to have too much faith in "democracy" as a way to keep their government in line with "public interest" (whatever that actually means). The fact is that politicians at the top of democratic governments -- often refered to as "leaders", although I would personally prefer the term "gangsters" -- are just as prone to be bought off by other nations as dictators are.
If I take the "alliance of nations" in the controversial war on Iraq as an example, I find a clear dichotomy between public opinion (a quasi-sacred component of democratic principles) and government action in Britain, Italy, Turkey and Spain. Bush and his warlords may count these countries as "allies " but those alliances would be pretty meager if the citizens of these countries were allowed to freely decide whether they want to participate in Bush's war or not.
Quote:| The best hope for all of us who, in our youth (and still today), wanted to see ordinary people walk the surface of Mars is the Chinese, unless they too fall under the spell of NASA money. |
I'm hoping that international pressure in the space "race" (China should be a significant source of pressure in the coming years) will force government agencies to acknowledge a growing role for the private sector. In my view, sustainable space exploration can only be performed by the private sector.
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David Lucifer
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Enlighten me.
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #4 on: 2003-11-22 19:50:45 » |
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[Ophis] I'm hoping that international pressure in the space "race" (China should be a significant source of pressure in the coming years) will force government agencies to acknowledge a growing role for the private sector. In my view, sustainable space exploration can only be performed by the private sector.
[Lucifer] It would certainly be cool to go to Mars (from my own raised-on-SF perspective) but where is the economic incentive? Can investors get a decent ROI?
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Ophis
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #5 on: 2003-11-24 12:43:17 » |
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I'm not an expert on the subject so I won't speculate too much but there might be something valuable for industrial purposes on the Moon or on Mars (minerals, different gravity, different atmosphere, solar exposure, land availability, etc). Maybe space exploration needs to start with near-earth tourism, or energy creation by directing solar power, or whatever else.
The point is that if there is anything at all of value out there (and I suspect that there is), the best mechanism to figure out if we can profitably -and thus sustainably- increase mankind's presence in space is the private market's value-discovery algorythm known as competition.
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metahuman
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #6 on: 2003-11-24 13:20:14 » |
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Governments don't think that far ahead. Private companies do.
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prometheus
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Where's the fire?
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Re:Your thirty years are up, NASA
« Reply #7 on: 2003-11-24 14:03:19 » |
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Quote from: David Lucifer on 2003-11-22 19:50:45
[Ophis] I'm hoping that international pressure in the space "race" (China should be a significant source of pressure in the coming years) will force government agencies to acknowledge a growing role for the private sector. In my view, sustainable space exploration can only be performed by the private sector.
[Lucifer] It would certainly be cool to go to Mars (from my own raised-on-SF perspective) but where is the economic incentive? Can investors get a decent ROI?
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Here is something that a friend of mine wrote that I have permission to post here.
Constructive comments are welcome.
Four EASY reasons to go to Mars.
There are many reasons to go to Mars. The primary reasons can be summed up in one word-EASY. It is not an easy trip to make but it is EASY to justify why we must go. Sending people to Mars will serve several purposes that are captured in the EASY reasons. They are not an exhaustive list but they are compelling reasons in their own right. Therefore it is EASY to see that we must mobilize for Mars.
E stands for Environment.
Mars is a challenging environment. It is a forbidding place for humans to endure. Not to mention the hostile conditions that we will need to face to get there. We will need to develop new technologies for protecting our Martian explorers and colonists. These technologies have the potential to catalyze innovation to deal with critical environmental issues on Earth. Corrosion resistance and filtering out dust will be problematic on Mars. New materials will be required to meet these challenges. The conditions of the Martian habitat will be closely monitored and will provide extensive data to evaluate the efficiencies of the new methods, materials, and machines.
There are several billion people in the developing world striving to attain Western level standards of living. However with current technology serious environmental issues will certainly arise unless we can make more out of less. An emphasis on sustainable use of limited resources will be exemplified by our efforts to explore Mars. Technology transfer from the Mars program to Earth has tremendous potential to avert environmental catastrophes.
Water is a critical resource on Mars. We know it is there and the challenge is to make it useful. Purification technologies are required in order to extract and render the Martian supplies usable. This technology has value on Earth because there are many areas where population pressures are straining the limits of fresh water supplies. The focus on conservation and recycling the water supply of the Mars mission has great potential in alleviating this challenge. In the developed and the developing world these problems exist as in California and the Middle East. In the developing world population pressures are compounding daily. Martian water purification technology may enable us to develop cheap, efficient small-scale plants that would relieve the strain on fresh water supplies by providing alternative sources to rivers and rainfall. Any water extraction technology that is proven on cold, dry Mars will be able to work much more efficiently on the warm, wet Earth
Energy is another resource that will be limited on Mars and it will be necessary for the Areonauts to conserve and use their power wisely. Designs for the Mars station should be efficient in their power usage. Efficient insulation is required for the chilly Martian environment. We don’t want the heat that we generate to keep the Areonauts warm to escape into the atmosphere. The production of water will also be a substantial energy consumer on Mars. The development of these methods and materials can potentially spin off versions that will address Earth’s growing energy crisis as fossil fuels decrease in availability and eventually are exhausted in the 21st Century. Alternative energy sources are a necessity for a Mars mission. Fuel cells and nuclear power seem to be promising current technologies for powering Mars missions. Safety and reliability of these sources will be high priorities. These improvements will be transferred to their Earthbound counterparts.
Air purification will be another area in which Martian technology will need to advance ahead of current abilities due to the novel challenges we will face. The ever-present dust has the potential to be a scourge to equipment and comfort. The advances developed to counter Martian conditions can lead to more durable materials for use on Earth and therefore more efficient use of resources.
Innovation will also be required in the provision of provisions for the Areonauts. It will improve the mission weight profile dramatically and probably the health of the crew if some sort of greenhouse can be started to grow fresh fruits, grains and vegetables. This will likely spur developments in hydroponic gardening on Earth and lead to the development of new fertilizers and hardy plant strains with a rich nutritional content.
A stands for Adventure.
We have a deep-seated need to explore. Our curiosity has driven us to every corner of the Earth and to the Moon. Frontiers inspire our imaginations and drive us to find new things within ourselves as well as external discoveries. The features on Mars call to us with their epic proportions. Olympus Mons is the largest peak in the Solar System. The Valles Marineris are a system of canyons that would stretch across the United States. Future explorers and tourists will be awestruck and inspired by these vistas. Think of the romance of the Old West and how it appeals to us even to the present day. Mars has inspired romantic visions for several hundred years. It continues to inspire romantic visions of the future and the frontier. It has become an increasingly popular setting for science fiction including Kim Stanley Robinson’s colors of Mars series.
The wonderful opportunity of our time is that everyone can participate in the missions to Mars at a level not imagined before the arrival of the Internet. Reality television has become popular in recent years. What could be a more engaging concept than people cooped up in a small habitat making history exploring an alien world. There is plenty of room for human drama against a Martian backdrop. There is no requirement for aliens or life on Mars for adventure to happen. As the veterans of reality television shows can confirm an adventure is a journey approached with an open frame of mind. On Mars the adventure may be comprised of our becoming the Martians and discovering new frontiers on the surface of the Red Planet as well as within ourselves. Mars and the infrastructure we develop to go there will open the universe to us. If we do not take these steps now they may never be taken and it would be tragic for us to forsake this opportunity.
It has been recently proposed that the Chinese may have beaten Columbus to America by about 60 years. Whether that is true or not the result was that the magnificent Chinese fleets were eventually destroyed as the Middle Kingdom turned inward. These were magnificent ships that put the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria to shame. However it is not difficult to argue that the voyages of Columbus with those humble ships have had a more lasting impact on world events than the voyages of Zheng He.
Will our present and future echo this precedent? America produced some very sophisticated and elegant ships to travel to the moon and they have been put away. Will there be a modern day Columbus who will travel with less awe inspiring equipment but to a more significant destiny? Will it be another country or could it be a grassroots group of dedicated individuals who believe in the cause enough to make it real?
Perhaps the arguments in Ming dynastiy China are echoed today by those who want to solve Earthbound issues first before undertaking an adventure to Mars. Several years ago I listened to one such argument. The response I heard was simple yet profound and I will paraphrase it "I don’t know what it will take to solve problems on Earth but I do know that I can put a bunch of people in a tin can and they can make it to Mars.”
S stands for Science
Science is the most often cited reason to go to Mars. Did life develop independently on Mars? The best way to answer this question is to send people there to do an exhaustive search. Despite the advances in robotics we can not match the flexibility and adaptability of a manned mission. This question has deep philosophical significance. It offers insight into whether we are alone as sentient beings in the universe. For if life arose on early Mars then one could argue that life is commonplace and will tend to self-organize at a high frequency if oceans exist in a planet’s history. Therefore the universe could be teeming with life and the question then becomes focused on what is the probability of intelligent life.
We will be able to compare the conditions on Mars past and present with conditions on Earth. This exercise in comparative planetology will yield insight into Earth’s evolution and perhaps guide us in managing our resources in the future. Monitoring Mars will help us refine our understanding of planetary climate and yield insight into Earth’s weather and the greenhouse effect. In fact a controlled greenhouse effect is one of the proposed methods for warming up Mars. In terms of the potential payoff in planetary impact this reason alone should compel us to allocate a small fraction of world GDP to send people to Mars.
Mars could be used to test space elevator materials and deployment. The relatively uninhabited Mars might be a better choice for the initial deployment of a space elevator than Earth in order to prove the principle and then it would serve to enable the colonization of the Red Planet. Other material science experiments on Mars would be to study chemistry in the sparse Martian atmosphere and compare the results to Earthbound experiments.
We will also learn many things about ourselves in the journey to Mars and in any efforts to colonize and terraform the Red Planet. A Renaissance may be born and extended just as it was with the European colonization of the New World. We will learn about human physiology, psychology and biology as we are exposed to alien environments.
Y stands for Youth
Mars offers the young a sense of purpose in our postmodern world. It is an opportunity to participate in a grand goal. It can produce a new focus on science so America can focus on producing scientists and explorers instead of bureaucrats and lawyers.
Perhaps the idea of a Mars Prize as mentioned in “The Case for Mars” is the way to go. For the imminent accomplishment and award of the X-prize may pave the way for the Mars prize as well as opening up space for business. The teams from all over the world seem to have a spirit of friendly competion and rivalry with a sense of underlying collaboration in that the goal once accomplished may benefit them all no matter who accomplishes it. Perhaps we are moving from an era of zero sum game nationalistic competition to an era of grassroots nonzero sum competion which also serves as collaboration. For example, one team will win the X prize potentially within the next year, the increased awareness and interest produced by meeting that milestone may grow the market such that the other teams also reap substantial benefits.
Many generations have dreamt of traveling to Mars. Perhaps we have seen the last generation of dreamers and the doers are now among us. So let us make the transition from dreamers to doers. There are at least four EASY reasons why we should make the trip now. So join the Mars society now (www.marssociety.org) and turn this dream into action. For the immediate future we can also snuggle up with William K. Hartmann’s excellent book “A Traveler’s Guide to Mars” and wait for the new probes to arrive.
Copyright 2003 Duane Hewitt (ddhewitt@yahoo.com) Please do not repost without author’s permission.
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