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Church of Virus BBS   Mailing List   Virus 2003   Probabilities (was: What does it mean to be me?) « previous next » Pages: [1]      Author  Topic: Probabilities (was: What does it mean to be me?)  (Read 1194 times) rhinoceros Archon Gender: Posts: 1318 Reputation: 8.34 Rate rhinoceros My point is ... Probabilities (was: What does it mean to be me?) « on: 2003-11-26 14:45:54 » [Lucifer] The probability of me sitting here reading this is 1.0. The odds of me being in another century are zero because if I was it wouldn't be me. [rhinoceros] I toss a coin 100 times. In the 87th toss, I get "heads". What can I say in this case? Can I say that the probability that it would be heads in the 87th toss is 1? Apparently it depends on how you define probabilitiy In the classical theory of probability the answer would be no. In the Bayesian theory of probability used in decision theory the answer might be yes (if you define probability as a means of reducing your uncertainty). I'll return to this issue soon -- no time now. Report to moderator   Logged David Lucifer Archon Posts: 2642 Reputation: 8.93 Rate David Lucifer Enlighten me. Re: virus: Probabilities (was: What does it mean to be me?) « Reply #1 on: 2003-11-26 20:20:06 » > [rhinoceros] > I toss a coin 100 times. In the 87th toss, I get "heads". What can I > say in this case? Can I say that the probability that it would be > heads in the 87th toss is 1?  [Lucifer] Before the 87th toss the probability would be 0.5 (assuming a fair coin). After you have seen the results of the 87th toss, the probability would be 1. The probability quantifies your knowledge about the event. If you toss the coin, but don't show me the results, then the probability for me would be 0.5 and for you 1.0 (assuming you did look) because that is how we would bet on the results. Even after I have seen the results, there is a very slight probability that I misread the coin, so the probability should be something slightly less that 1 technically. --- To unsubscribe from the Virus list go to <http://www.lucifer.com/cgi-bin/virus-l> Report to moderator   Logged Pages: [1]   Jump to:Please select a destination: ----------------------------- General ----------------------------- =>Announcements =>Evolution and Memetics =>FAQ =>Church Doctrine =>Science & Technology =>Society & Culture =>Arts & Entertainment =>Philosophy & Religion =>Humor & Satire =>Creative Endeavors =>Serious Business =>Virian Book Club =>Second Life =>Free For All =>Infections =>Suggestion Box =>Test Area ----------------------------- Mailing List ----------------------------- =>Virus 2006 =>Virus 2005 =>Virus 2004 =>Virus 2003

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