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Topic: Economic Speculation (Read 869 times) |
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Kharin
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In heaven all the interesting people are missing.
  
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Economic Speculation
« on: 2003-10-09 16:33:26 » |
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Since one facet of the recent ideohazard discussion was the likely economic fortunes of differing countries, I thought this might be interesting:
http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report6.html
"In less than 40 years, the BRICs’ (Bazil, Russia, India, China) economies
together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Currently they are worth less
than 15%. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex.
In US dollar terms, China could overtake Germany in the next four years, Japan by 2015 and the US by 2039. India’s economy could be larger than all but the US and China in 30 years. Russia would overtake Germany, France, Italy and the UK.
Of the current G6 (US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK) only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. "
I think there is some cause for scepticism over this (and over Russia in particular) but interesting nonetheless.
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JD
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RE: virus: Economic Speculation
« Reply #1 on: 2003-10-10 05:39:14 » |
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Interesting article, thanks.
I tend towards beings sceptical of 50-year-out forecasts because I think
they are just a little bit too ambitious. I prefer slightly shorter
forecasts.
You might enjoy this one:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/index.html
It dates from December 2000 and makes for interesting reading.
Regards
Jonathan
P.S. Your post brought to mind another case of long term forcasting I read about some time ago:
Quote:In 100 years, will Libya have a larger economy than the United States? How about Lithuania and Tunisia? Would you be willing to place a multi-billion dollar bet that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will have a higher GDP than the United States by 2100?
Will Gabon's GDP race ahead of Australia's by 2100? If not Gabon, perhaps from the sands of Algeria an economic miracle will blossom, growing Algeria's economy larger than those of many first world nations? Would you be willing to bet Swaziland will overtake Australia by 2100? Vanuatu? New Caledonia? Care to wager a few hundred billion dollars on it?
According to Statistics/Economics Professors Ian Castles and David Henderson, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made all of those assumptions, and more, in their seminal IPCC reports on global warming, and the world is contemplating its bets at the casino called the Kyoto Protocol, the multibillion dollar treaty that flowed from the IPCC reports. |
From http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2003/2/17/15110/5194
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-virus@lucifer.com [mailto:owner-virus@lucifer.com] On Behalf Of
Kharin
Sent: 09 October 2003 21:33
To: virus@lucifer.com
Subject: virus: Economic Speculation
SNIP
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