@@ -27,11 +27,11 @@ The question is what should we be doing about it.
!!Human Brains and Projections
-The human brain operates at only around 200 calculations per neuron per second. Due to the large number of neurons in the brain [
infra]
all operating in parallel, the brain actually calculates at a far higher effective speed. Current scientific opinion is that Man, like elephants[3], dolphins[4] and his close-cousins the great apes[5], derives his self-awareness from his complex brain, capable of around 100 Teraflops (10^14 or 100 trillion (US) calculations per second). Our apparent data storage capacity is around 100 Terabytes (based on 10^14 analog values stored at the synapses of approximately 100 billion neurons with an average of 1 000 connections (synapses) per neuron)[6]. In other words, the arguments here depend on the thesis that self awareness is an artifact of neuronal density and complexity. This seems supported by the fact that only animals with complex brains appear to be self-conscious.
+The human brain operates at only around 200 calculations per neuron per second. Due to the large number of neurons in the brain (
infra)
all operating in parallel, the brain actually calculates at a far higher effective speed. Current scientific opinion is that Man, like elephants[3], dolphins[4] and his close-cousins the great apes[5], derives his self-awareness from his complex brain, capable of around 100 Teraflops (10^14 or 100 trillion (US) calculations per second). Our apparent data storage capacity is around 100 Terabytes (based on 10^14 analog values stored at the synapses of approximately 100 billion neurons with an average of 1 000 connections (synapses) per neuron)[6]. In other words, the arguments here depend on the thesis that self awareness is an artifact of neuronal density and complexity. This seems supported by the fact that only animals with complex brains appear to be self-conscious.
-There are currently about 6.3 billion people living on Earth, and if we do not experience any major disasters (war, disease, cosmic, geological in decreasing order of probable deaths) this number is anticipated to rise by some 2.6 billion to 8.9 billion people by 2050[7]. By 2060 global population will have stabilized, and subsequent to that there should be a decrease in overall population figures. We have extrapolated using a simple square rule based on the 2050 data to estimate total population. This suggests that in 2050, extrapolating single human performance, humanity as a whole will have a total capacity of 10^23 flops (100 ZettaFLOPS) of performance and 10^23 Bytes (100 ZettaBytes) of storage.
+There are currently about 6.3 billion people living on Earth, and if we do not experience any major disasters (war, disease, cosmic, geological in decreasing order of probable deaths) this number is anticipated to rise by some 2.6 billion to 8.9 billion people by 2050[7]. By 2060 global population will have stabilized, and subsequent to that there should be a decrease in overall population figures. We have extrapolated using a simple square rule based on the 2050 data to estimate total population. This suggests that in 2050, extrapolating single human performance, humanity as a whole will have a total capacity of 10^23 flops (100 ZettaFLOPS) of performance and 10^23 Bytes (100 !
ZettaBytes) of storage.
!!Moore's Law.
Moore's Law was formulated by Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel in 1965[8]. As formulated today, Moore's Law states that "Storage density and processor performance will double every 18 months." This law is expected to apply using existing, well understood technologies until at least 2017. New technologies are being research which are likely to increase the rate at which developments occur. For example moving to three-dimensional chips founded on carbon nanotubes would change this from a square to a cube law progression, and the incorporation of superconducting materials will alleviate thermal constraints on packaging.
@@ -104,8 +104,10 @@
Yet no change means no development, and man is far from perfect.
A third issue would be the likelihood that
+
+====
[1] Self-awareness. Measured using the "mirror test". Gordon Gallup, Jr. began development of the mirror test in 1969. The mirror test involves marking the faces of animals or other parts which the animals cannot see with red dye, and determining whether the animals touch the marks on themselves or those appearing in a reflection in a mirror. Most animals treat mirror images as they would peers. Humans generally behave much the same way until 18 to 24 months, after which they start to recognize themselves in a reflection and also begin to use personal pronouns. Gallup proposes that the self-awareness demonstrated by this test might indicate the ability to empathize with other animals. [ "What an Elephant Sees in the Mirror", Jessica Clark, Brittanica.com, 2000-08-30 | http://www.mindspring.com/~samizdata/britannica/elephant.htm ] It should be noted that in [ "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon", SCIENCE, VOL. 212, 1981-05-08, Robert Epstein, Robert P Lanza, BF Skinner | http://www.k.tsukuba-tech.ac.jp/ge/people/katoh/katohJ.html ], produced a nonmentalistic model of this test which perhaps reduces the value of this test. However a great deal more work based on the "mirror-test for self awareness" is in the literature subsequent to the publication of "Self-Awareness" in the Pigeon" suggesting that the "mirror-test" is still consider a valid test.
[2] Spirothete: noun. A word coined to describe a living being, initially created as an artifact, from Latin, spiro -are; intransit., to breathe, blow, draw breath; to be alive; to have inspiration; be inspired; transit., to breath out, expire (also L/Gk spiros the breath of life) and synthetic adj 1: (chemistry) not of natural origin; prepared or made artificially 2: involving or of the nature of synthesis (combining separate elements to form a coherent whole) as opposed to analysis.
@@ -141,22 +143,23 @@ [14] General AI:
[http://www.pcai.com/web/ai_info/general_ai_sites.html]
[http://www.aihorizon.com/essays/generalai/]
+====
[] A discussion on the Singularity held between Hermit and Anand in the #virus IRC channel at irc.Lucifer.com:6667
!!Acknowledgements
Disussions on the BBS of the Church of Virus at http://virus.lucifer.com/bbs particularly with Andy Brice [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::HGlHRI0J-IXUD-P0Fw-VR1u-PwdeSyGKcn4Y] and on the #virus IRC channel at irc.lucifer.com:6667, particularly with David Lucifer, BJ Klein and Annand [http://forum.javien.com/XMLmessage.php?id=id::qYbtiiaT-7ATv-xEsX-pFS6-aaR5BTSic_3b].
- [
*]
A few milliseconds later (if that long) they will comprehend that ultimately it will boil down to Luddite mankind vs themselves, and unless we or they invent some modus other than the evolutionary, or possibly see some hope or pleasure for themselves in mankind, likely eliminate us. While the world of Matrix suggested a different possible outcome (and I should not that many e.g. extropians see some possibilities in such an outcome), the question I run into is why the "Machines" would bother to preserve the human gene or minds. What is there about our genes, our ethics or our capabilities that would make us appear sufficiently valuable to deserve preserving any more than other species (particulary a species vastly more capable of thinking rapidly and accurately, much more energy efficient and able to manipulate the environment at levels we can only dream of?)?
+* A few milliseconds later (if that long) they will comprehend that ultimately it will boil down to Luddite mankind vs themselves, and unless we or they invent some modus other than the evolutionary, or possibly see some hope or pleasure for themselves in mankind, likely eliminate us. While the world of Matrix suggested a different possible outcome (and I should not that many e.g. extropians see some possibilities in such an outcome), the question I run into is why the "Machines" would bother to preserve the human gene or minds. What is there about our genes, our ethics or our capabilities that would make us appear sufficiently valuable to deserve preserving any more than other species (particulary a species vastly more capable of thinking rapidly and accurately, much more energy efficient and able to manipulate the environment at levels we can only dream of?)?
-[
*]
We develop ourselves to a point where we would not be perceived as a threat by superior intelligences by developing a binding ethic based on a rational perspective which is non-competitive in nature, recognizing other intelligences as being equally valuable, and live by it, while simultaneously attempting to improve ourselves through genetics and neurotechnology to a point where we might be recognized as worthy of a reverse recognition of being intelligent (despite our history).
+* We develop ourselves to a point where we would not be perceived as a threat by superior intelligences by developing a binding ethic based on a rational perspective which is non-competitive in nature, recognizing other intelligences as being equally valuable, and live by it, while simultaneously attempting to improve ourselves through genetics and neurotechnology to a point where we might be recognized as worthy of a reverse recognition of being intelligent (despite our history).
-[
*]
We develop the ability to serve as entertaining pets (doubtful that we could entertain creatures able to think a lot faster than ourselves for very long).
+* We develop the ability to serve as entertaining pets (doubtful that we could entertain creatures able to think a lot faster than ourselves for very long).
-[
*]
We resign ourselves to oblivion.
+* We resign ourselves to oblivion.
-So, the question of the day is, if the Luddites win (and right now they seem to be winning), will they have a very short period to enjoy this before they are eliminated by our successors, or is there an eye to this needle through which a few humans might hope to escape? A consequent question is, if there is something that can be done, what should we as individuals or as a church be attempting to do about it?
+*
So, the question of the day is, if the Luddites win (and right now they seem to be winning), will they have a very short period to enjoy this before they are eliminated by our successors, or is there an eye to this needle through which a few humans might hope to escape? A consequent question is, if there is something that can be done, what should we as individuals or as a church be attempting to do about it?
-For I would put it so strongly as to suggest that we are in a situation parallel to 390 CE only in a much more dangerous world. And the barbarians are about to burn down the Library of Alexandria which contains the few possible "escape routes" which might offer us some hope.
+*
For I would put it so strongly as to suggest that we are in a situation parallel to 390 CE only in a much more dangerous world. And the barbarians are about to burn down the Library of Alexandria which contains the few possible "escape routes" which might offer us some hope.
