#### Bayes' Theorem: "Adjustment of Subjective Confidence"

This is Bayes' Theorem. It is named after Rev. Thomas Bayes, an 18th century mathematician who derived a special case of this theorem. Bayes' calculations were published in 1763, two years after his death. Exactly what Bayes intended to do with the calculation, if anything, still remains a mystery today. However, this theorem, as generalized by Laplace, is the basic starting point for inference problems using probability theory as logic. ref

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