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From: Mike Jay[SMTP:Quarterback@msn.com]
Sent: Friday, May 23, 1997 3:10 PM
To: virus@maxwell.lucifer.com
Subject: virus: RE: virus-digest V2 #134
>I would remind you that Perot built Clinton...had it not been for the time
and
>place, he couldn't have won with ~44% of the vote. He would have been
just an
>also-ran along with others.
Just a thought,
mike
But I think YOU'RE WRONG Mike. You're assuming that ALL the Perot votes
would have gone to Bush. Look up the 1992 election results in the World
Almanac and you'll see that in '88 voter turn out was 42 <Dukakis> + 49
<Bush> = 91 million. In '92 voter turnout was 45 <Clinton> + 39 <Bush> +
20 <Perot> = 104 million. Assuming a similar turnout as '88 and ALL Perot
votes going to Bush the final score would have been 45 million to 46
million ... which seems too tight to call given the unreasonable
assumptions. I encourage you to enter the data from the World Almanac into
a spreadsheet and play with the margins to see that the Bush - Dukakis race
was much tighter then the Clinton - Bush -Perot race. If you do that and
EMail me your spreadsheet with your assumptions I'd be happy to continue to
debate you....Although we'd be in the region of statistics ... the only
force less rational then faith.