rhinoceros
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My point is ...
  
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Rita goes to the market
« on: 2005-09-30 20:01:45 » |
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In this interview in MIT Technology Review
Predicting Rita
http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/09/wo/wo_092805talbot.asp
the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecasting lab explains how a better model ensemble and more computing power can help in a more cost-effective risk management.
<snip>
TR: The benefits seem obvious -- tighter predictions can save lives and avoid needless evacuations.
AM: They always used to say an evacuation alone costs a million dollars a mile. If you warn 50 miles of coastline, it's going to cost $50 million. I think that was pre-Katrina. We are going to look at Rita and Katrina and say they cost perhaps as much as $10 million per mile, and we are going to need much higher accuracy. A warning of 100 miles of coastline would cost $1 billion. There are lots of things we can do to improve our forecast so we can improve on our evacuation accuracy.
TR: What does the federal government spend on hurricane forecasting now, and what's needed?
AM: We put about $50 million total into everything from the hurricane center to the models. I think that if you really said "You know, this is an extraordinary problem that is going to cost, like Katrina did, $100 billion," you'd want to spend an additional couple hundred million a year to really improve as fast as possible.
<snip>
[rhinoceros]
One interesting question: Sometimes we talk here about the benefits of a market society without a government in control of any resources. What could a plausible scenario be in this case? Should we assume that insurance companies would take care of this through some kind of market mechanism? How much would they have charged in New Orleans so that they could pay $100 billion in damages? (and also spend the "additional couple hundred million a year" for research, if they see fit.) How many people would have been able to pay the insurance required? (assuming no mandatory payment enforced by a government.) What would the uninsured be expected to do after a disaster?
I would really like to read a realistic story with these settings... Sometimes a good story is a bigger challenge than a series of arguments: In a story, the reader reconstructs a full picture and it can be easier to point at the logical gaps and the unacceptable choices which may slip between the seams of the enumerated arguments.
Let me add one more touch. The following far-thinking op-ed by geophysicist Klaus Jacob appeared in Washington Post. Somehow it seems to come straight from science fiction:
Time for a Tough Question: Why Rebuild?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/05/AR2005090501034.html
<snip>
...should we rebuild New Orleans, 10 feet below sea level, just so it can be wiped out again?
Some say we can raise and strengthen the levees to fully protect the city. Here is some unpleasant truth: The higher the defenses, the deeper the floods that will inevitably follow. The current political climate is not conducive to having scientific arguments heard before political decisions are made. But not doing so leads to the kind of chaos we are seeing now.
<snip>
It is time to face up to some geological realities and start a carefully planned deconstruction of New Orleans, assessing what can or needs to be preserved, or vertically raised and, if affordable, by how much. Some of New Orleans could be transformed into a "floating city" using platforms not unlike the oil platforms offshore, or, over the short term, into a city of boathouses, to allow floods to fill in the 'bowl' with fresh sediment.
<snip>
[rhinoceros] The following piece, on the other hand, contains a statement as much stupid as it is true:
Failure to rebuild New Orleans (safely) is not an option
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/3337763
<begin quote>
"It's in the spirit of America to rebuild," said Casey E. Green, head of special collections at Galveston's Rosenberg Library.
<end quote>
[rhinoceros] I think this stupid remark is true, and not only of America! What happens now is that the construction companies swarm in and start an activity which will result in an economic boost. Not the same people will get benefits, but what the heck. Like with a natural disaster, very few have the scope and the means to position themselves in an optimal place regarding risks. For the rest, it is a matter of opportunity and their capability to ride along. There will be blind winners and blind losers.
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