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Topic: Russian roulette - and all the chambers are loaded. (Read 1120 times) |
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Hermit
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Russian roulette - and all the chambers are loaded.
« on: 2008-03-31 00:36:09 » |
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First read this off-site article (i.e. click on the link and come back here when you are finished. Well written. Provocative. Written by somebody competent in the field. An absolute must read and in my opinion, well worth careful study. Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US by Dmitry Orlov.
It may be happening a little faster than anticipated. See Finance, the Economy, Asset Protection first, and then read the following articles.
For a foretaste of the likely future (this is also pretty much how Ontario, Canada struck me in the early 1980s - so not a stretch at all), look at Las Vegas - where "the Strip" is under foreclosure*.
Naturally, this isn't a purely American phenomena, as a disappointingly inept article in the Observer discusses. I raise it because while the article itself was far from the most compelling or even well researched in my opinion, some of the comments (I have included the most significant in my opinion below) are well worth reading and the editor grokked what the author was trying to say. Those who control oil and water will control the world - New superpowers are competing for diminishing resources as Britain becomes a bit-player. The outcome could be deadly by John Gray.
My biggest argument with the article proper was in this line, "There is no alternative to continuing growth, but it comes with deadly side-effects." The alleged "growth" has been fueled by fossil fuels, which we have burned up at a rate equivalent to burning 300 times the entire annual planetary biomass increase each year. As the cheap fuel runs out, the "growth" will be reversed. Unfortunately it will leave a ravaged planet behind it.
Some of the comments are remarkably accurate. Others are very amusing. Here are a few highlights (I am responsible for the unattributed mining and editing that follows as I had intended them as notes for my own benefit but thought I'd leave my mastication here in case anyone is interested. There is nothing here I have any significant disagreement with (or at least found amusing in one way or another.):
Britain is now a net-importer of oil after peaking in production in 2001. Whether you believe the Saudis who say they haven't peaked yet or not, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia is exporting less than it did last year, either through declining stock or greater internal use, and is no longer the world's largest exporter - that would be Russia which has also peaked in production. Indonesia, still a member of OPEC, is also now a net-importer like Britain and peaked long ago, Australia's in the same situation. There have been no large mega-fields discovered since the North Sea and none are expected. Iraq has lost a large percentage of its prewar supply for obvious reasons and I'd not like to guess when their supply returns to prewar levels. Iran may be able to increase supply but without the expensive and deteriorating oil infrastructure of the western oil-majors is unlikely to increase supply soon. Canada's Alberta oil-sands (tar-sands) is unlikely to reach estimated supply increases due to the collapse of gas stocks required for conversion and a shortage of fresh water. Mexico is declining so fast they will cease exports altogether within two years, and they are the largest supplier of crude to the US after Saudi Arabia. Venezuela's decline is not so dramatic, yet, but their crude is heavy and hard to refine and there's a world shortage of this kind of refining capacity.
The rise of China and Russia can be attributed to their buying up of energy leases, with no strings attached, across normally western dominated regions; western oil majors now only control single digit percentages of world oil reserves, whether we like it or not we will have to deal with them (China and Russia) on their terms. The balance of economic power is being transferred away from western economies at an ever-increasing rate.
The old economic rationale of never-ending expansion has ended and energy shocks are now beginning to enter a state of permanence.
The current economic turmoil has as much to with this underlaying burden as the greed and stupidity of the financial giants, and there is no end to it beyond total collapse.
[Hermit] To which I would add that the stupidity of burning oil to attempt to control oil can also now be seen to yield a negative return.
Those who consider other energy sources beyond oil are living in a fool's paradise. Europe is better positioned than America for the coming collapse of the energy and food supply with much of its agriculture still within reach of city and urban dwellers, though this may only mean a better distribution of very limited resources.
There are no alternatives to oil; coal-to-oil technology is energy intensive and refineries are huge and take years to build, also coal does not just leap from the ground into these refineries, it must be mined by oil-powered machinery and transported by oil-powered transport. Much the same can be said of nuclear power generation, only nuclear power stations are even more expensive and take even longer to build. North American (Canada, USA, Mexico) gas fields are collapsing everywhere and many of the gas-fired power plants built in the recent past will become idle as gas stocks decrease further. The Colorado shale-oil is still impossible to refine due to the energy cost of retrieval, an energy sink, and the latest idea to come from those trying to work the margins is for nuclear plants to be built above the oil shale for the heat necessary for conversion, they haven't even gotten the numbers right yet let alone begun to build these plants that take years to assemble. There also happens to be a shortage of uranium stock to draw from as recent price increases will attest.
Australia has the largest uranium supplies anywhere in the world but are not going to go nuclear at all because even though they are a net energy supplier, and their oil is declining rapidly, they still have vast reserves of natural gas that is mostly being sent to China. America is that much further away and therefore a whole new set of economic valuations complicate sales there. China is now Australia's biggest trading partner after ousting America several years ago - and trade with America was always lopsided even after the disadvantageous "Free trade" agreement. Australia makes a nice profit from trade with China that offsets losses with the US, so much for the ANZUS treaty...
America (USA) relies on petroleum-powered transport for everything including the transport of all its food and most of its workforce, without this constant flow serious displacements are going to occur, and sooner than most expect. You cannot trust the EIA or CERA, who have been wrong on every estimate since 2000, whereas ASPO has been ahead of the curve EVERY time. How much are you paying for gasoline right now? There might have been a chance to change this if they had started doing something about it ten or fifteen years ago but it is now too late to suddenly start changing from oil-powered strip malls to local initiatives except on a small scale. Expect to see millions of disgruntled Americans locked up in Halliburton-built detention camps when food and energy riots begin.
If you are not off-the-grid, like G.W.Bush's Texas ranch, you will be seriously in trouble. Armies cannot march on other armies without oil and the US industrial war machine will demand every last drop to keep itself alive while its citizens suffer, of that you can be certain.
A neocon, LOTR10 [ Hermit : THey are everywhere! ] , interjected "You are aware that the USA is well positioned for the upcoming resource "wars". North America contains vast energy reserves ...In fact I've always felt using up other peoples oil & gas was a smart move for the day when energy resources become really valuable. By the way, both the USA and Canada have large Uranium deposits! And please Canadian posters, if it gets as ugly as the author hints, do you really think your resources are not our resources. Not being rude, just realistic."
And a Canadian sensibly replied:
Thanks for the warning. But with Obama and Clintion threatening to rewrite NAFTA we say, "Go ahead. Make our day."
Any revision of NAFTA will include explicit bans on the export of water and should include making energy exports contingent on first having a century of reserves for Canadian needs and then slapping a hefty export tax on oil and gas leaving Canada.
If the Merkins don't like it and want to invade they do it at their peril. First, Canadians can blend into the general Merkin population (provided we learn to stop saying 'eh) and conduct guerrilla warfare. Second, if the Merkins annex Canada, then there will be 30 million new voters who will bring about a radical reshaping of the U.S: the ERA will pass, rigorous gun control will be a reality, and the Republican party will have no hope of controlling the presidency, the senate or the house of representatives in the foreseeable future.
This, in turn, would cause the southern U.S. to secede again only this time unopposed. The Republic of Cascadia would emerge on the west coast. California and Texas would revert to Mexico. The Republic of Arcadia would emerge on the east coast. The northern states would join Canada (after their militia members have migrated south) and form a new country called, of course, Canada and those new citizens from the northern states will be happier than they have ever been. Middle America would eventually become the rump U.S. and face desertification.
So, I say, 'Bring it on. Let's do the world a favour and get rid of the U.S. once and for all."
*Source: Dystopia
Refer Also: Wall St. Journal: Foreclosure on Las Vegas Casino to Begin
Las Vegas' Project CityCenter, the largest private development in the Unites States, was to be 8 acres of shops, casinos, hotels, condos, and theaters. But now it looks like big portions of the project may remain in a state of half-built rubble piles for years to come, due to the current credit crisis in the United States. So what did this shining dream of real estate moguls look like before it turned all Resident Evil: Extinction?
Here is what developers claimed the CityCenter would like like back when the started construction.
Last week, Deutsche Bank AG, the lender on the Cosmopolitan Project (the piece of this structure that's on the far right), started foreclosure proceedings after developer Ian Bruce Eichner was unable to get more financing for the world's biggest mega-mall. Let that be a lesson to everyone who looks at gleaming architecture renderings and imagines they're seeing the future.
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. - Steven Weinberg, 1999
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Blunderov
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"We think in generalities, we live in details"
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Re:Russian roulette - and all the chambers are loaded.
« Reply #1 on: 2008-03-31 04:37:00 » |
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[Blunderov]I thought that the piece "Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US" by Dmitry Orlov was utterly brilliant.
I also thought that "Rejecting Belief" http://www.churchofvirus.org/bbs/index.php?board=32;action=display;threadid=35684;start=34;msg was also utterly brilliant.
A vote of thanks to the Hermit for these wonderful contributions.
Does the Church of Virus have a Canon? We do have a Hagiography but perhaps we could also have a specific collection of posts/recommended writings that are, by concensus, considered to well reflect our core values/evolutions?
(I would nominate both of the aforementioned posts for inclusion in the Canon.)
Best Regards.
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Hermit
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Re:Russian roulette - and all the chambers are loaded.
« Reply #2 on: 2008-03-31 10:21:59 » |
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Thank-you.
Apropos of something, the "Rejecting UTism" "riding rockets to the moon" remains my favorite quote of all time.
Kindest Regards
Hermit
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. - Steven Weinberg, 1999
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