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virus: how to preserve good judgement
« on: 2004-10-09 13:49:45 » |
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Yesterday night I happened to stumble upon the live Bush-Kerry-television
debate. I had to realise that it is impossible for me to judge the validity
of each opponents' arguments since I simply do not know enough about their
concrete political actions etc. I guess that even most US citizens do not
know as much (probably more than I, but still not much) - thus, we all have
to rely on the way experts judge who "won" instead of being able to judge
(and consider the weight of) each argument for itself.
Of course this brings up the problem of the necessity to rely on the
selective reports of the media, but I want to draw attention to something
else and make a suggestion:
Isn't it true that Bush had an all-time low in the opinion polls until two
or three months ago? Lately, he had a slight advantage - and as I can
imagine, the tv debates, that is, how experts judge them, will have a direct
effect on the opinions, such as today (yesterday) when both opponents were
judged more or less equal after the debate. I suppose that the opinion polls
after the third debate will predict the results of the election most
reliably.
What I am saying is, public opinion changes with the weather. That's
commonplace. People do not rationally consider all that the candidates did
lately, but decide more or less on the spot where to make their cross. Even
intelligent but not very politically inclined people might not.
Do you think it is a good idea to keep track of one's own opinion for, say,
one year before the election, every sunday or so noting how you feel about
the president/government and the opponent (like 5="they're doing a great
job", 3=indifferent, 1="they're acting absolutely incompetently"), then
before election calculating the average (I see it's not really an interval
scale, but it seems valid) and getting a general, personal longitudinal
opinion poll... of course, the question remains how to compare the two
candidates, for the opponent is not doing the same thing as the government.
Just came to my mind - what do you think?
Björn
p.s.: More abstractly, it amounts to "in the face of your memetic, err,
influencability, which is the most valid way of assessing your own opinion,
i.e. how to become less dependent on the election campaign-hype?"
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Othello. Thou dost conspire against thy friend, Iago,
If thou but think'st him wrong'd, and mak'st his ear
A stranger to thy thoughts.
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