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   Author  Topic: Win Landsburg's Money  (Read 1570 times)
David Lucifer
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Win Landsburg's Money
« on: 2011-01-02 13:37:20 »
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This is fun>> http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/12/27/win-landsburgs-money/

I bet Steve $100 that he is wrong, and just confirmed the bet via email. I have great respect for Landsburg, I have read and enjoyed all of his books. I know Steve is smarter than me but I'm betting that the engineers at Google are collectively smarter than Steve. This should be interesting.


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David Lucifer
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Re:Win Landsburg's Money
« Reply #1 on: 2011-01-04 11:09:18 »
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Updated here >> http://www.thebigquestions.com/2011/01/04/status-of-the-bets/


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David McFadzean was initially in for $100, but changed his mind after a few rounds of friendly email. He and I seem to be in complete agreement about the answer, though he expressed some reservations about whether that answer differs “significantly” from 50%.

In negotiating specifics of the bet Steve revised his expectation to .4999999975 for an initial population of 10 million. That's close enough to 50% for me so I consider that a win. Steve got me to agree that it was less than 50% so that's a win for him.
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Fritz
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Re:Win Landsburg's Money
« Reply #2 on: 2011-01-04 13:10:31 »
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Yah but; 1 out of 1 doctors questioned told me there is a 2% bias in the general population to female.

Cheers

Fritz
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Where there is the necessary technical skill to move mountains, there is no need for the faith that moves mountains -anon-
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